Roundtable on AAPL

This week's Roundtable stock is AAPL. Joining me in evaluating it are Tom Ott, Kaushik Gala, Levi Bauer, Ron Sen, & Bill Cara. I try pretty hard not to look at my colleagues' evals before I write mine, because I don't want to bias myself. I have to confess this week I glanced at Levi's; frankly, after seeing it I'm tempted to write "just read Levi's write-up, I can't add anything intelligent to that"--he put together a disciplined, thorough, step by step comprehensive look at it that is just outstanding. Nevertheless, I'll try to say something semi-intelligent and vaguely appropriate.
Apple to me is one of those "cult" companies and products. There are fanatics who think Apple's products are "genius", and who think Jobs is a visionary pioneer, and then there are people like me who say, "yeah, that's kinda cool, but Dell makes pretty much the same thing cheaper, and Whizbango makes something similar for a whole lot cheaper."
If this sounds derogatory, I apologize; I don't mean it that way--what I really mean to say is that I just don't get it, it being Apple's products or the company. To me computers become more and more of a commodity every year, and why one product or one company deserves a premium is unclear to me. However, just because I don't "get" something doesn't mean it can't work.
Right now it does look like Apple the stock is commanding a premium compared to other computer manufacturers. It sports a PE of 70, compared to Dell's 30, and the industry average of 24, and a PS of 3.6, compared to Dell's 2 and the industry's 1.5. Yeah, but its a fast grower right now, you say--except that its PEG ratio is 2, compared to Dell's1.1 and the industry's 1.3. Now, I know this is just a cursory look at simple numbers, but sometimes you don't have to put the fat person on a fancy scale to know that he's fat. I don't see any way to call this company a "buy" on a fundamental basis--the time to do that was late '02-early '03 when it was priced in the low teens and, as I recall, had 12 bucks per share in cash. Of course, then there were rumblings that Apple was "over" (that's always the way it is, isn't it?).
Let's look at some technicals. I think those are a pretty simple stratightforward story as well.
Here is the weekly chart for AAPL

courtesy of stockcharts.com

While it certainly has come real far real fast, I wouldn't short it--its come this far, who's to say it can't go up another 20,30,50, or even 100 points? When a stock has risen like this, I think it's a coin flip as to whether the next 20-30 points will be up or down. Thus, I have no edge in picking the direction here. I will say that a simple glance at the chart shows me support at 60, from the consolidation there, and the fibonacci retracement. If we get a pullback to about 60, and then some strength again, one could justify going long again with a stop just below 60.
The money quote: Any way you look at this one, it's expensive. If you're lucky enough to be in this one from a lot lower, two words: trailing stop. If you're not in this one, I'd stay out. I wouldn't do anything till after a significant correction.