I'm not any great expert on trading technique, but I have a thought on time frame and volatility. One metric that I try to look at routinely is ATR, or average true range. Stockcharts.com defines ATR as a 14-period moving average of the greatest of 1)The current high less the current low; 2)The absolute value of current high less the previous close; or 3)The absolute value of: current low less the previous close. Basically it is an indication of how much a stock can move in one period. Thus if a stock has an ATR of 2 on a daily chart, it means that over the past 14 days, 50% of the time the stock moved MORE than 2 points between high and low, and 50% of the time less than 2 points. I think of this as just normal back and forth, random noise if you will.
Why should I care? Timeframes. If my timeframe is more than a couple days, and my trailing stop is within the ATR, then I stand a good chance of getting stopped out just by the normal back and forth movement of the stock.Maybe this is obvious to everyone else, but its something I need to keep working on -- I've gotten needlessly stopped out by normal volatility because I didn't pay enough attention to the ATR.
Wednesday, January 12, 2005
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