TaylorTree had an excellent post this morning about whether we're in for a repeat of the '70's. No, not disco, platform shoes, and mood rings, but stagnant equities, hot commodities, and an iminent apocalypse. Essentially, I've sort of argued the same point, and so have others, but Taylor used a little different method of analysis--demographics, and old Business Week editions. It's really a good read.
Let me lay out my own thesis--history doesn't repeat tiself, but it does rhyme. The Dow flirted with 1000 at the end of the 1960s. The first Dow close above 1000 was in 1972. The last Dow close below 1000 was 1982. In the same way, the first Dow close above 10000 was 1999. In my view, the last Dow close below 10000 will be somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
I also assume we are in a 'generational' trading range. I use the window of 1966 to 1982 for the prior cycle. While it did not close above 1000 the DJIA traded through 1000 several times in early 1966. Giving a 16 year term for that cycle. I tie the range to the DJIA levels and the Pres Elec Cycle and assume the current cycle was entered in 1998; suggesting a similar time period as yours, 2013-2015 to end the current cycle. The Pres Elec Cycle was critical to respect during that 1966-1982 phase.
Post a Comment