TaylorTree had an excellent post this morning about whether we're in for a repeat of the '70's. No, not disco, platform shoes, and mood rings, but stagnant equities, hot commodities, and an iminent apocalypse. Essentially, I've sort of argued the same point, and so have others, but Taylor used a little different method of analysis--demographics, and old Business Week editions. It's really a good read.
Let me lay out my own thesis--history doesn't repeat tiself, but it does rhyme. The Dow flirted with 1000 at the end of the 1960s. The first Dow close above 1000 was in 1972. The last Dow close below 1000 was 1982. In the same way, the first Dow close above 10000 was 1999. In my view, the last Dow close below 10000 will be somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
Monday, March 14, 2005
Loser List for March 14, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
*SU buy above 37.5
AKS might be a buy if 12.5-13 holds
CENT might be a buyable pullback, stop at 44
CLF, buy, stop at 69.5
DESC, buy with a stop about 3.75
KMRT broke out of the box. Darvas would buy it.
MW ditto
NAT found support at 45?
TGA--support about 5.9?
CPL long above 21.5
GMP long above 29.8
KO buy it "for the long term" on any pullback
CNR might be a buy with a stop at 1.59
Pennies --real casino stuff. Instead of buying these, click the tip jar for jaloti.
**FNPR buy above 0.35
*GEOI a buy above 6.2
CTCHC buy, stop at 0.7
TLEI buy above 0.45
AGFL another breakout above 3.5
DTMC a breakout above 0.1
EZEN buy above 1.65
RIRI buy above 0.27
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
*SU buy above 37.5
AKS might be a buy if 12.5-13 holds
CENT might be a buyable pullback, stop at 44
CLF, buy, stop at 69.5
DESC, buy with a stop about 3.75
KMRT broke out of the box. Darvas would buy it.
MW ditto
NAT found support at 45?
TGA--support about 5.9?
CPL long above 21.5
GMP long above 29.8
KO buy it "for the long term" on any pullback
CNR might be a buy with a stop at 1.59
Pennies --real casino stuff. Instead of buying these, click the tip jar for jaloti.
**FNPR buy above 0.35
*GEOI a buy above 6.2
CTCHC buy, stop at 0.7
TLEI buy above 0.45
AGFL another breakout above 3.5
DTMC a breakout above 0.1
EZEN buy above 1.65
RIRI buy above 0.27
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Sunday, March 13, 2005
Sunday Night Charts for March 13, 2005
Let's start with the old favorite.
Nasdaq. Weekly chart.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Boy, it's caught between a trendline and a resistance line. Let's look at it in another view. This is the Nasdaq, daily chart.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
I still say, 2090-2100 is key on this one--if it can break above it and hold, it may run up for awhile--if it can't it's look out below.
Oil is on everybody's mind--let's first look at West Texas Intermediate Crude
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Uptrend, pretty strong move the last couple weeks, but bumping up against a double top. If it can't crack this, maybe a rest for a while--the support in the low 40's looks strong.
Next is the Index of Oil stocks--the OIX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Well, we all knew that parabolic up move couldn't last. Where will the downmove find support? Remember, don't try to catch a falling knife--wait for it to bounce, or better yet come to rest.
Next is a new one--the VIX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
No fear here. The downtrend will continue until it reverses.
And in the continuing saga of commodities, the CRB
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
After a little fake out, the uptrend continues with a vengeance.
Finally, Warren Buffett's favorite short, the USD
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
The downtrend continues.
Have a great week everyone!
Nasdaq. Weekly chart.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Boy, it's caught between a trendline and a resistance line. Let's look at it in another view. This is the Nasdaq, daily chart.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
I still say, 2090-2100 is key on this one--if it can break above it and hold, it may run up for awhile--if it can't it's look out below.
Oil is on everybody's mind--let's first look at West Texas Intermediate Crude
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Uptrend, pretty strong move the last couple weeks, but bumping up against a double top. If it can't crack this, maybe a rest for a while--the support in the low 40's looks strong.
Next is the Index of Oil stocks--the OIX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Well, we all knew that parabolic up move couldn't last. Where will the downmove find support? Remember, don't try to catch a falling knife--wait for it to bounce, or better yet come to rest.
Next is a new one--the VIX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
No fear here. The downtrend will continue until it reverses.
And in the continuing saga of commodities, the CRB
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
After a little fake out, the uptrend continues with a vengeance.
Finally, Warren Buffett's favorite short, the USD
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
The downtrend continues.
Have a great week everyone!
Fox Saturday Morning "Business Bloc" for March 12, 2005 Part Deux
Forbes on Fox and Cashin In were pre-empted yesterday for breaking news. The segments were replayed today, and this is my summary. The first part of the cost of Freedom suumary is here.
Forbes on Fox's The Informer segment mentioned that new legislation is apparently being proposed that will make it hard for "deadbeats" to walk away from credit card debt. While this sounds like it might be good for credit card issuers, the panelists couldn't agree, and the consensus was that credit card issuers such as KRB, COF C and PVN should be either bought or sold. Michael Thomsett in the Makers and Breakers segment mentioned FITB but the panelists thought it was too expensive; he also mentioned PAYX and the panelists liked it.
Cashin' In started with a discussion about whether CEOs make too much money. Wayne Rogers made some good points about CEOs being paid off by the compensation committee whether the stock is performing or not. Price Headley gave the bottom line--if the stock is performing, nobody cares about the compensation. As usual, no insights were given about how to trade this one. In the Best Buys segment, dealing with former high-flying stocks, Price Headley mentioned MSTR but says he doesn't own it now. Wayne Rogers suggested AKAM. Jonathan Hoenig says SBSA is worth a look, but Rogers mentioned UVN as better in this sector. Adam Lashinsky suggested SNDK. In the mail segment, water transportation stocks were discussed, both Rogers and Hoenig threw out a list of names-VLCCF, CKH, TNP, OSG, MMLP, ATB, that they have been in and out of. In the final segment, John Curran was plugging DVN.Why not?
Forbes on Fox's The Informer segment mentioned that new legislation is apparently being proposed that will make it hard for "deadbeats" to walk away from credit card debt. While this sounds like it might be good for credit card issuers, the panelists couldn't agree, and the consensus was that credit card issuers such as KRB, COF C and PVN should be either bought or sold. Michael Thomsett in the Makers and Breakers segment mentioned FITB but the panelists thought it was too expensive; he also mentioned PAYX and the panelists liked it.
Cashin' In started with a discussion about whether CEOs make too much money. Wayne Rogers made some good points about CEOs being paid off by the compensation committee whether the stock is performing or not. Price Headley gave the bottom line--if the stock is performing, nobody cares about the compensation. As usual, no insights were given about how to trade this one. In the Best Buys segment, dealing with former high-flying stocks, Price Headley mentioned MSTR but says he doesn't own it now. Wayne Rogers suggested AKAM. Jonathan Hoenig says SBSA is worth a look, but Rogers mentioned UVN as better in this sector. Adam Lashinsky suggested SNDK. In the mail segment, water transportation stocks were discussed, both Rogers and Hoenig threw out a list of names-VLCCF, CKH, TNP, OSG, MMLP, ATB, that they have been in and out of. In the final segment, John Curran was plugging DVN.Why not?
Weekend Wazzup for March 13, 2005
My roundup of the Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- is here.
Bill Cara once again presents an very thorough review of the week. The very provocative money quote: "I have one thing to say to the buyers of stock on Friday March 4; if you were solicited by a broker to buy MSO stock at $36 that day, and you can prove (probably easily) that your brokerage firm sold stock from their inventory position that day, you have a 100 percent chance of winning a lawsuit. Get a lawyer." I wish Bill would tell us what he really thinks! Like he did when he talked about being voted off the blog island last week in Uglychart's running "survivor" contest for stock market blogs. Don't take it personally, Bill, I think the number of votes reflects the number of readers, or something; interestingly, I think Random Roger had only a single digit number of votes last week, and now has a huge lead. All I know is Jaloti is getting hits right from the contest--publicity is publicity as long as they spell your URL correctly. (That's J A L O T I--it is not my real name, it is short for Just another loser on the internet, in case anyone hasn't figured that out yet.) At any rate, whether he gets voted off or not, Random Roger had a Big Picture post on investing (or not investing) in currencies and commodities. He says he believes in keeping it as simple as possible, and doing what you are comfortable with. Good advice for most everything, frankly. Always full of good advice is Stephen Vita at Alchemy of trading. He had a nice chart of TOL breaking a trend line, and he also previews a post for tonight. (I guess he knows something about marketing as well as trading;>)). Stockcoach had some interesting comments about checking your portfolio mulitple times a day even if you're not a daytrader. (If I'm not mistaken Nassim Nicholas Taleb has written something about this as well.) Moving on, Taylor Tree made some comments about Galatime's covered call work. Sounds like Taylor's posting is inhibited by his day job. I can sympathize, mate--good luck. Gala had some interesting more general posts on options--keep it up Gala, both the general and the specifics! Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research had a few interesting posts--thoughts on TiVo (I love my TiVo, except that MY TiVo isn't a TiVo, it's a Cox DVR, which I think in some way makes his point), about how you don't need to give yourself an MI to be a good analyst (it doesn't even help) and about the always intriguing RFID. Byrne's Marketview has also been busy, opining on the Warner Music IPO, the FERC nullifying Enron contracts, the Five Dumbest Things from thestreet.com, a dot.con job, and more of the Qwest-MCI-Verizon love triangle. The Soothsayer of Omaha, besides tipping us to the Mark Cuban portfolio revelation, also offered a slightly different perspective on oil prices. TraderMike reflected on a wild Friday, (in the markets, that is). Chairman MaoXian's newsletter came out today. Check out his chat every weekday 8:30-9:30 Eastern time, often you'll find a loser there.
Ron Sen has been quiet other than one thought-provoking post; maybe it has something to do with a basketball tournament?. Sixth World's Gazette has also been quiet so far this weekend(probably busy reading the rest of us ;>)).
Have a great week, everybody!
Bill Cara once again presents an very thorough review of the week. The very provocative money quote: "I have one thing to say to the buyers of stock on Friday March 4; if you were solicited by a broker to buy MSO stock at $36 that day, and you can prove (probably easily) that your brokerage firm sold stock from their inventory position that day, you have a 100 percent chance of winning a lawsuit. Get a lawyer." I wish Bill would tell us what he really thinks! Like he did when he talked about being voted off the blog island last week in Uglychart's running "survivor" contest for stock market blogs. Don't take it personally, Bill, I think the number of votes reflects the number of readers, or something; interestingly, I think Random Roger had only a single digit number of votes last week, and now has a huge lead. All I know is Jaloti is getting hits right from the contest--publicity is publicity as long as they spell your URL correctly. (That's J A L O T I--it is not my real name, it is short for Just another loser on the internet, in case anyone hasn't figured that out yet.) At any rate, whether he gets voted off or not, Random Roger had a Big Picture post on investing (or not investing) in currencies and commodities. He says he believes in keeping it as simple as possible, and doing what you are comfortable with. Good advice for most everything, frankly. Always full of good advice is Stephen Vita at Alchemy of trading. He had a nice chart of TOL breaking a trend line, and he also previews a post for tonight. (I guess he knows something about marketing as well as trading;>)). Stockcoach had some interesting comments about checking your portfolio mulitple times a day even if you're not a daytrader. (If I'm not mistaken Nassim Nicholas Taleb has written something about this as well.) Moving on, Taylor Tree made some comments about Galatime's covered call work. Sounds like Taylor's posting is inhibited by his day job. I can sympathize, mate--good luck. Gala had some interesting more general posts on options--keep it up Gala, both the general and the specifics! Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research had a few interesting posts--thoughts on TiVo (I love my TiVo, except that MY TiVo isn't a TiVo, it's a Cox DVR, which I think in some way makes his point), about how you don't need to give yourself an MI to be a good analyst (it doesn't even help) and about the always intriguing RFID. Byrne's Marketview has also been busy, opining on the Warner Music IPO, the FERC nullifying Enron contracts, the Five Dumbest Things from thestreet.com, a dot.con job, and more of the Qwest-MCI-Verizon love triangle. The Soothsayer of Omaha, besides tipping us to the Mark Cuban portfolio revelation, also offered a slightly different perspective on oil prices. TraderMike reflected on a wild Friday, (in the markets, that is). Chairman MaoXian's newsletter came out today. Check out his chat every weekday 8:30-9:30 Eastern time, often you'll find a loser there.
Ron Sen has been quiet other than one thought-provoking post; maybe it has something to do with a basketball tournament?. Sixth World's Gazette has also been quiet so far this weekend(probably busy reading the rest of us ;>)).
Have a great week, everybody!
Saturday, March 12, 2005
Charting Change in the Middle East
There can be no doubt that there is change in the Middle East, and the potential for a lot more change, and their markets reflect that. While it can be a little difficult for Americans to invest in markets of the Middle East, the easiest way is through closed end country funds trading on the NYSE. I own two that have been quietly doing quite well recently. I looked up these charts for my Sunday Night Charts feature, but I decided to give them their own post, partly because they are nice charts, but mostly because I think this is a worthwhile story.
First is ISL, a closed end fund investing in Israeli companies. It is up nearly 50% since the third quarter 2004. I should note it trades at a slight (about 3%) discount to NAV.
courtesy of stockcharts.com
Next is TKF, a closed end fund investing in Turkey. While Turkey itself is pretty stable and democratic, Turkish companies stand to profit from increased peace and prosperity in the region. It is up nearly 100% in a year, and trades at about a 14% premium to NAV.
courtesy of stockcharts.com
Let's hope there will continue to be more freedom and more prosperity in this region.
First is ISL, a closed end fund investing in Israeli companies. It is up nearly 50% since the third quarter 2004. I should note it trades at a slight (about 3%) discount to NAV.
courtesy of stockcharts.com
Next is TKF, a closed end fund investing in Turkey. While Turkey itself is pretty stable and democratic, Turkish companies stand to profit from increased peace and prosperity in the region. It is up nearly 100% in a year, and trades at about a 14% premium to NAV.
courtesy of stockcharts.com
Let's hope there will continue to be more freedom and more prosperity in this region.
Fox Saturday Morning "Business Bloc" for March 12, 2005
Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- The "Cost of Freedom" Block was abbreviated due to breaking news.
Bulls and Bears started with an macro initial discussion of if and when the Dow would reach 12K. Gary B. Smith said September. 'Nuff said. Tobin Smith actually said if oil is above $50 and interest rates about 5%, it won't get there. Mostly, it was a lot of"rising oil will kill the market" "no it won't". Next segment was stocks that won't get hurt by a CEO sex scandal (???) Tobin Smith said VLO. Danielle Hughes said XOM. Pat Dorsey liked (and owns) BRK --quote of the day "technically he (Buffett) was living in sin for a number of years anyway" Scott Bleier suggested HON. In the "Smith Brothers" segment, Gary B. Smith named IPXL and BRO as breakouts but Tobin Smith didn't like them; they both agreed SBUX was okay though. In predictions, Scott Bleier called a pop in housing bubble and TOL to fall; Pat Dorsey said MSFT is finally cheap enough to buy; Tobin Smith said MANH is gonna get bought out at a 40% premium by MSFT; Danielle Hughes said EBAY is going down; and Gary B. Smith ELY to go up.
Cavuto on Business started with yet another discussion on scial security reform, but at least there was something different-the suggestion of a national lottery to raise money for secial security. The panelists either loved it or hated it. The next segment was "knockout stocks": Leigh Gallagher said NKE, Gregg Hymowitz named PMMAY, Charles Payne liked PEP, and Chris Russo mentioned SWC because he likes commodities and "palladium is the only cheap metal". Next segment was more sex scandals-doesn't help me make money. Finally, lots of pointless predictions about American Idol and Martha--the most interesting one was Charles Payne predicting that many more small public companies will voluntarily delist themselves because Sarbanes-Oxley and other regulations are making the burden of being public too onerous.
Forbes on Fox started with more CEO sex scandal stuff. Interesting discussion to a point--but again, I don't really see how it makes me money. Next segment discussed taxing junk food, and was mercifully interrupted by a breaking news segment.
Unfortunately, Cashin' In, my favorite of the Fox Saturday financial shows, was completely pre-empted by the breaking news. I'll keep an eye out for it being replayed at some point this weekend.
UPDATE--Forbes on Fox and Cashin In were played in their entirety Sunday morning and my summary is here.
Bulls and Bears started with an macro initial discussion of if and when the Dow would reach 12K. Gary B. Smith said September. 'Nuff said. Tobin Smith actually said if oil is above $50 and interest rates about 5%, it won't get there. Mostly, it was a lot of"rising oil will kill the market" "no it won't". Next segment was stocks that won't get hurt by a CEO sex scandal (???) Tobin Smith said VLO. Danielle Hughes said XOM. Pat Dorsey liked (and owns) BRK --quote of the day "technically he (Buffett) was living in sin for a number of years anyway" Scott Bleier suggested HON. In the "Smith Brothers" segment, Gary B. Smith named IPXL and BRO as breakouts but Tobin Smith didn't like them; they both agreed SBUX was okay though. In predictions, Scott Bleier called a pop in housing bubble and TOL to fall; Pat Dorsey said MSFT is finally cheap enough to buy; Tobin Smith said MANH is gonna get bought out at a 40% premium by MSFT; Danielle Hughes said EBAY is going down; and Gary B. Smith ELY to go up.
Cavuto on Business started with yet another discussion on scial security reform, but at least there was something different-the suggestion of a national lottery to raise money for secial security. The panelists either loved it or hated it. The next segment was "knockout stocks": Leigh Gallagher said NKE, Gregg Hymowitz named PMMAY, Charles Payne liked PEP, and Chris Russo mentioned SWC because he likes commodities and "palladium is the only cheap metal". Next segment was more sex scandals-doesn't help me make money. Finally, lots of pointless predictions about American Idol and Martha--the most interesting one was Charles Payne predicting that many more small public companies will voluntarily delist themselves because Sarbanes-Oxley and other regulations are making the burden of being public too onerous.
Forbes on Fox started with more CEO sex scandal stuff. Interesting discussion to a point--but again, I don't really see how it makes me money. Next segment discussed taxing junk food, and was mercifully interrupted by a breaking news segment.
Unfortunately, Cashin' In, my favorite of the Fox Saturday financial shows, was completely pre-empted by the breaking news. I'll keep an eye out for it being replayed at some point this weekend.
UPDATE--Forbes on Fox and Cashin In were played in their entirety Sunday morning and my summary is here.
Friday, March 11, 2005
Loser List for March 11, 2005
The word for all these picks is "BOOS" Buy Only On Strength
Looking at a chart of TNX, I think the yield on the ten year note may have put in a short term top.
AAPL-- don't worry ugly the buyers will come in at 35--it will go no lower than that--I guar-an-tee it.
**APLX-- long, support at top of gap at 6.8
BRY may have found support at 55. But wait for strength to buy.
CMTL still may have support at 40
GSOL--might be a long, stop about 16.5
IINT long stop at 2.2 if it shows some strength
RESC buy on strength, stop 22.5
ELP long above 4.48
GMP long stop 29.8
AWR-"for the long term" besides, it's my water company
BGT-- ?time to pick up some more "for the long term"
SU might be time to get back in--above 37.5
SJT long stop 33
Lots of setups in the casino--but don't actually buy any of these--a more enjoyable way to blow your money would be to spend it on booze and strippers
*FNPR long stop at 0.34
RIRI breakout long above 0.3
CTCHC--keep an eye above 0.75
PMU gotta break above 0.75
QUIK long only on strength, stop 3.8
TLEI long above 0.37
ANX long above 1.25
AGFL breaking out of a Darvas box, long above 3.32
EZEN long on strength, stop 1.48
CGREF if it breaks 2
Looking at a chart of TNX, I think the yield on the ten year note may have put in a short term top.
AAPL-- don't worry ugly the buyers will come in at 35--it will go no lower than that--I guar-an-tee it.
**APLX-- long, support at top of gap at 6.8
BRY may have found support at 55. But wait for strength to buy.
CMTL still may have support at 40
GSOL--might be a long, stop about 16.5
IINT long stop at 2.2 if it shows some strength
RESC buy on strength, stop 22.5
ELP long above 4.48
GMP long stop 29.8
AWR-"for the long term" besides, it's my water company
BGT-- ?time to pick up some more "for the long term"
SU might be time to get back in--above 37.5
SJT long stop 33
Lots of setups in the casino--but don't actually buy any of these--a more enjoyable way to blow your money would be to spend it on booze and strippers
*FNPR long stop at 0.34
RIRI breakout long above 0.3
CTCHC--keep an eye above 0.75
PMU gotta break above 0.75
QUIK long only on strength, stop 3.8
TLEI long above 0.37
ANX long above 1.25
AGFL breaking out of a Darvas box, long above 3.32
EZEN long on strength, stop 1.48
CGREF if it breaks 2
Thursday, March 10, 2005
Couple odds and ends
Byrne's Marketview had a link to a story about a guy buying all the outstanding shares of a penny stock, yet it still trades. False SEC filing, or naked short selling?
On the fifth anniversary of the Nasdaq top, Inventing Money linked to a collection of articles about where the money's flowed since then. The "money summary" is that 13 of 26 world indices have hit all-time highs in the past month. Was it Livermore who said there's always a bull market somewhere? WWLD?
On the fifth anniversary of the Nasdaq top, Inventing Money linked to a collection of articles about where the money's flowed since then. The "money summary" is that 13 of 26 world indices have hit all-time highs in the past month. Was it Livermore who said there's always a bull market somewhere? WWLD?
What Mark Cuban is buying
Both Soothsayer of Omaha and Marketview have linked to Mark Cuban's portfolio.
Or, at least, what he wants to reveal of his portfolio.
And I don't say that perjoratively, just realistically--the guy's a gajillionaire, with some pretty big postions in companies--why should he tell us what he's doing?At any rate, a couple interesting holdings--LGF, RENT, and some fakakta position in NFI that I can't quite figure out (I'm not sure what "preferred stock loaned for rebate" means, and I'm a little suspicious if somebody says they make money if the stock goes up or down)
Or, at least, what he wants to reveal of his portfolio.
And I don't say that perjoratively, just realistically--the guy's a gajillionaire, with some pretty big postions in companies--why should he tell us what he's doing?At any rate, a couple interesting holdings--LGF, RENT, and some fakakta position in NFI that I can't quite figure out (I'm not sure what "preferred stock loaned for rebate" means, and I'm a little suspicious if somebody says they make money if the stock goes up or down)
Loser List for March 10, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
BZH if it shows strength, might be a long--160 looks like support
CMTL if you're looking for a breakout, here it is, long, stop at 40
NAT might be a buyable pullback if 45 holds
RMI might be worth some play money if 4.5 holds
TGA may be a long, stop about 6.5
ELANZ if it gets above 0.40, maybe so
GEOI long above 6.22
REV a breakout above 2.9
GG breakout above 15.2
and as the roulette wheel spins, watch out for DTMG,CWLC,TLEI, CTCHC, PMU, SGU and WILCF
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
BZH if it shows strength, might be a long--160 looks like support
CMTL if you're looking for a breakout, here it is, long, stop at 40
NAT might be a buyable pullback if 45 holds
RMI might be worth some play money if 4.5 holds
TGA may be a long, stop about 6.5
ELANZ if it gets above 0.40, maybe so
GEOI long above 6.22
REV a breakout above 2.9
GG breakout above 15.2
and as the roulette wheel spins, watch out for DTMG,CWLC,TLEI, CTCHC, PMU, SGU and WILCF
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Wednesday, March 09, 2005
Loser List for March 9, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
I'm telling you, the COMPQ can't hold 2090.
Likewise, if the QQQQ if it can't crack 38, it's going down.
ABLE--not technically a distribution day, but in the interest of being provocative, I"m calling a top on this one right here right now.
ASR--if shows some strength, might be a long with a stop at 31
BOOM!-- TOP!
CREE keep an eye on it for a short--stop 23.5
MAX nice pop after stockcoach mentioned it--farther to run?
SGU this dog won't hunt, but maybe it'll scratch some fleas or bring in the newspaper. Maybe long, with some play money, on a real tight stop?
X--might be a buyable pullback, if it shows some strength. Long stop at 56
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
I'm telling you, the COMPQ can't hold 2090.
Likewise, if the QQQQ if it can't crack 38, it's going down.
ABLE--not technically a distribution day, but in the interest of being provocative, I"m calling a top on this one right here right now.
ASR--if shows some strength, might be a long with a stop at 31
BOOM!-- TOP!
CREE keep an eye on it for a short--stop 23.5
MAX nice pop after stockcoach mentioned it--farther to run?
SGU this dog won't hunt, but maybe it'll scratch some fleas or bring in the newspaper. Maybe long, with some play money, on a real tight stop?
X--might be a buyable pullback, if it shows some strength. Long stop at 56
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Tuesday, March 08, 2005
Buffett
Well, since the annual Berkshire Hathaway Chairman's letter came out on Saturday, it's time for everybody and his brother to comment on Warren Buffett. I've been thinking about this post for a couple days, but what spurred me to do it was Paul Kedrosky's post here. Paul basically takes the "Buffett is a mess of contradictions" line and runs with it. With all due respect to Paul, I'm not sure that "mess of contradictions" is really true, but I do agree with the title-"The Half-told Story of Warren Buffett" because I think there is MUCH more to the Buffett story than is commonly realized, and more dimensions to the man than commonly admitted.
First, I think it's easy for most Buffett-ologists to slide into either obsequious sycophantism or thinly veiled envy. I'll try not to do either. Buffett is enormously talented but only human, after all. I believe what makes him so unusual is that he is a world class talent in three areas. First is in what he would call "capital allocation"-- he knows both the price and the value of everything, and when p is much less than v, he buys. Second is as a business leader and judge of people. These two areas overlap a little, but are largely different skillsets. It is unusual to have a CEO who is merely good in both areas, let alone world class. Third, most underappreciated and in my view most important is as a salesman. The dude can sell, and I say that with respect and admiration. As a twentysomething he was able to convince midwestern doctors and lawyers and such to place their hard earned money with him. They were of course richly rewarded. Much of the conventional wisdom about Buffett comes from what he has sold to us through his annual letters, his annual meeting q and a, and other public pronouncements. Has he sold us a false picture--absolutely not, just an incomplete one. Has he given the masses bad advice?--no, but maybe he hasn't always done as he says.
Buffett basically started as a hedge fund operator with hefty performance fees and everything. He got out of that game largely because he's running too much money now for the techniques he used then. But, again, that's what makes him singular--how many hedge fund operators wind up successfully managing a $100 billion conglomerate? It would be as if Michael Jordan made it to Cooperstown, instead of stopping in the minors.
I don't pretend to give a comprehensive review of Buffett. There are many on the web that can give a more thorough picture than I have. There are a number of books worth looking into. Personally, I am eager to look at the Altucher book. Above all, I have enormous respect and admiration for the man, and feel there is a lot to learn from watching him and listening to him.
If you haven't yet, check out my use of Buffett's own words in an attempt to value Berkshire Hathaway. Part I is here and the update is here.
First, I think it's easy for most Buffett-ologists to slide into either obsequious sycophantism or thinly veiled envy. I'll try not to do either. Buffett is enormously talented but only human, after all. I believe what makes him so unusual is that he is a world class talent in three areas. First is in what he would call "capital allocation"-- he knows both the price and the value of everything, and when p is much less than v, he buys. Second is as a business leader and judge of people. These two areas overlap a little, but are largely different skillsets. It is unusual to have a CEO who is merely good in both areas, let alone world class. Third, most underappreciated and in my view most important is as a salesman. The dude can sell, and I say that with respect and admiration. As a twentysomething he was able to convince midwestern doctors and lawyers and such to place their hard earned money with him. They were of course richly rewarded. Much of the conventional wisdom about Buffett comes from what he has sold to us through his annual letters, his annual meeting q and a, and other public pronouncements. Has he sold us a false picture--absolutely not, just an incomplete one. Has he given the masses bad advice?--no, but maybe he hasn't always done as he says.
Buffett basically started as a hedge fund operator with hefty performance fees and everything. He got out of that game largely because he's running too much money now for the techniques he used then. But, again, that's what makes him singular--how many hedge fund operators wind up successfully managing a $100 billion conglomerate? It would be as if Michael Jordan made it to Cooperstown, instead of stopping in the minors.
I don't pretend to give a comprehensive review of Buffett. There are many on the web that can give a more thorough picture than I have. There are a number of books worth looking into. Personally, I am eager to look at the Altucher book. Above all, I have enormous respect and admiration for the man, and feel there is a lot to learn from watching him and listening to him.
If you haven't yet, check out my use of Buffett's own words in an attempt to value Berkshire Hathaway. Part I is here and the update is here.
Loser List for March 8, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
COMPQ is bumping at resistance at 2090
CREE still looks like a short with a stop at 23.5
FINL long with a stop about 21
GSOL long, stop 13?
OCR maybe a long, stop 35
ROV still looking like range contraction, might be a long, stop about 42
TKF a way to play change in the Middle East, long, stop about 19-20
HAL long above 43
CNR still looks like it might be a long above 1.75
SMH pretty good resistance at 35
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
COMPQ is bumping at resistance at 2090
CREE still looks like a short with a stop at 23.5
FINL long with a stop about 21
GSOL long, stop 13?
OCR maybe a long, stop 35
ROV still looking like range contraction, might be a long, stop about 42
TKF a way to play change in the Middle East, long, stop about 19-20
HAL long above 43
CNR still looks like it might be a long above 1.75
SMH pretty good resistance at 35
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Monday, March 07, 2005
Loser List for March 7, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
ALGN if you want to bottom fish, try this one with a stop at 7.34
CREE Tom you were right about this one. I'm saying short, stop about 23.5
DESC long, stop about 3.8
FINL long, stop about 21.1
RICK probably not that good a long, stop 3.5, mostly it's an excuse to link to some table dances.
RMI might take a flyer, long, stop at 4.4
ROV range contraction stop about 42
TGA maybe a long, stop at 7
F if you want to short a breakdown, this is one, stop at 12.5
KKD nice move up. I'm gonna go WAY out on a limb, and say this one goes to 12-14 and then reverses--lots of volume at those levels--those bagholders will all dump it and be glad to be out if it makes it back to those levels
MRK has an "air pocket" between about 33 and 42, i.e. very little volume at those levels--if it gets above 33-34, it could go far, fast. Think about it.
CNR--I say think about at long, stop about 1.75
WILCF long stop at 6.9?
Pennies. Pure casino stuff. Remember to tip your waitresses.
MRKL may have put in a bottom at 0.42?
MZT breakout and pullback--only if it stays above 1.28
MUCL support at 0.39?
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
ALGN if you want to bottom fish, try this one with a stop at 7.34
CREE Tom you were right about this one. I'm saying short, stop about 23.5
DESC long, stop about 3.8
FINL long, stop about 21.1
RICK probably not that good a long, stop 3.5, mostly it's an excuse to link to some table dances.
RMI might take a flyer, long, stop at 4.4
ROV range contraction stop about 42
TGA maybe a long, stop at 7
F if you want to short a breakdown, this is one, stop at 12.5
KKD nice move up. I'm gonna go WAY out on a limb, and say this one goes to 12-14 and then reverses--lots of volume at those levels--those bagholders will all dump it and be glad to be out if it makes it back to those levels
MRK has an "air pocket" between about 33 and 42, i.e. very little volume at those levels--if it gets above 33-34, it could go far, fast. Think about it.
CNR--I say think about at long, stop about 1.75
WILCF long stop at 6.9?
Pennies. Pure casino stuff. Remember to tip your waitresses.
MRKL may have put in a bottom at 0.42?
MZT breakout and pullback--only if it stays above 1.28
MUCL support at 0.39?
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Sunday, March 06, 2005
Sunday Night Charts for March 6, 2005
Let's start with an old favorite.
Nasdaq. Weekly chart.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Hasn't yet broken that trendline. Might be thinking about it, but not yet.
Next is one I've done a lot of handwringing about--CME
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Trying to break that uptrend, eh? If it does, all the volume overhead ("the bagholders") will likely provide either overhead resistance, or fuel for a downtrend. It'll have to show some strength, soon, for me to want to be long this one.
Now contrast the CRB
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Uptrend, pretty strong move the last couple weeks. Maybe the CME is no longer a good proxy for this one?
Next is gold.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Still a nice uptrend. (Keep the Krugerrands buried in the backyard, maw!)
Dow Utilities
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Still hot. Next test will be the overhead resistance about 400, or 10% higher.
Finally, Warren Buffett's favorite short, the USD
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
The downtrend continues to play out as expected.
Have a great week everyone!
Nasdaq. Weekly chart.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Hasn't yet broken that trendline. Might be thinking about it, but not yet.
Next is one I've done a lot of handwringing about--CME
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Trying to break that uptrend, eh? If it does, all the volume overhead ("the bagholders") will likely provide either overhead resistance, or fuel for a downtrend. It'll have to show some strength, soon, for me to want to be long this one.
Now contrast the CRB
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Uptrend, pretty strong move the last couple weeks. Maybe the CME is no longer a good proxy for this one?
Next is gold.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Still a nice uptrend. (Keep the Krugerrands buried in the backyard, maw!)
Dow Utilities
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Still hot. Next test will be the overhead resistance about 400, or 10% higher.
Finally, Warren Buffett's favorite short, the USD
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
The downtrend continues to play out as expected.
Have a great week everyone!
Roundtable XOM
This weeks roundtable stock is XOM. Other roundtable members are Levi Bauer, Tom at Sixth World, Ron Sen, Bill Cara, and Kaushik Gala.
Exxon Mobil right now is one of the largest publicly traded companies, with a market cap of over 400 billion. The simple fundamental metrics are that it has a PE of 16, compared to ChevronTexaco's 10 and the industry's 13. Its P/Sales is 1.35, compared to CVX 0.87 and the industry's 1. Its PEG is 2.3, compared to 2.4 and 1.7 respectively. Nothing jumps out at me there. I'm sure my colleagues will do a better job with strict fundamental analysis than I could--thus I want to look at this stock in a little different way.
I used a tool that I talked about here, when I was appropriately challenged on canadian royalty energy trusts, and whether their prices were related more to oil prices, or interest rates. I did a simple correlation between the price of XOM and the price of crude, specifically West Texas Intermediate Crude oil. The results confirm what one would expect--the share price of XOM correlates well with the price of crude. Over the past 2 years, the correlation is 0.91 (remember, 1 is perfect correlation, and 0 is no correlation, i.e. random). Over the past year, however, the correlation is 0.75, and over the past month it is 0.69. The point, of course, is that even two instruments that correlate can get out of whack from time to time. (I realize there are lots of potential problems with this sort of correlation analysis--I'm using only a period with an up oil market, sometimes things correlate until they don't, etc. Still I think it is useful.)
So what do the technicals look like?
Weekly chart
courtesy of stockcharts.com
An uptrend, with a big parabolic move in the past few weeks. Besides the normal common sense that a move like that is unsustainable, look at the high volume spike the last week, without any real move in the price. Distribution? Maybe/maybe not, but it does make one a little more wary. (In the 20/20 hindsight department, note also the big volume spike in July 02 with a long-tailed candlestick--in retrospect, a sure sign of a bottom).
In summary, XOM over the long term tracks the price of crude oil pretty well. If you think crude will continue up, XOM is an easy way to play that--but not right now! Wait for a major correction, and then this may be a good way to be long crude oil.
Exxon Mobil right now is one of the largest publicly traded companies, with a market cap of over 400 billion. The simple fundamental metrics are that it has a PE of 16, compared to ChevronTexaco's 10 and the industry's 13. Its P/Sales is 1.35, compared to CVX 0.87 and the industry's 1. Its PEG is 2.3, compared to 2.4 and 1.7 respectively. Nothing jumps out at me there. I'm sure my colleagues will do a better job with strict fundamental analysis than I could--thus I want to look at this stock in a little different way.
I used a tool that I talked about here, when I was appropriately challenged on canadian royalty energy trusts, and whether their prices were related more to oil prices, or interest rates. I did a simple correlation between the price of XOM and the price of crude, specifically West Texas Intermediate Crude oil. The results confirm what one would expect--the share price of XOM correlates well with the price of crude. Over the past 2 years, the correlation is 0.91 (remember, 1 is perfect correlation, and 0 is no correlation, i.e. random). Over the past year, however, the correlation is 0.75, and over the past month it is 0.69. The point, of course, is that even two instruments that correlate can get out of whack from time to time. (I realize there are lots of potential problems with this sort of correlation analysis--I'm using only a period with an up oil market, sometimes things correlate until they don't, etc. Still I think it is useful.)
So what do the technicals look like?
Weekly chart
courtesy of stockcharts.com
An uptrend, with a big parabolic move in the past few weeks. Besides the normal common sense that a move like that is unsustainable, look at the high volume spike the last week, without any real move in the price. Distribution? Maybe/maybe not, but it does make one a little more wary. (In the 20/20 hindsight department, note also the big volume spike in July 02 with a long-tailed candlestick--in retrospect, a sure sign of a bottom).
In summary, XOM over the long term tracks the price of crude oil pretty well. If you think crude will continue up, XOM is an easy way to play that--but not right now! Wait for a major correction, and then this may be a good way to be long crude oil.
Weekend Wazzup for March 6, 2005
My roundup of the Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- is here.
Weighing in on the Roundtable so far are Ron Sen, and Levi Bauer; other Roundtable members are Tom at Sixth World, Bill Cara, Kaushik Gala, and yours truly.
Speaking of my Roundtable brothers, Ron Sen has his usual weekend plethora of posts, with six so far. Galatime pointed to another good resource on options. Tom Ott at Sixth World brings us up to date on some changes at his site. Bill Cara once again presents an outstanding review of the week. Read it for yourself, but just a hint--he thinks there is more downside risk than upside potential in most US equities at this point. And Levi links to the other Soothsayer of Omaha.
Speaking of Buffett, Taylor Tree made mention of an interesting book--that examines the trading of Warren Buffett, not the "favorite holding period is forever"Buffett, but the buying and selling Warren Buffett. Looks like good stuff.
Chairman MaoXian whose newsletter came out yesterday, also had some great excerpts from the other Chairman's letter. Check out his chat (Mao's, not Warren's) every weekday 8:30-9:30 Eastern time.
Stockcoach bemoans his lack of a position in energy stocks.
Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research had a couple interesting notes--asking for any suggested questions for a hedge fund panel, and suggesting that others on the internet may want to join in an open source equity research project.
TraderMike read a couple charts--NVT and THQI.
Byrne's Marketview gave in and said the "M" word. Well, I guess somebody had too.
Material Change linked to a free, open-source VoIP platform for embedded devices. (gotta show my geek side every now and then.)
Random Roger made a great suggestion that we should read, and let CNBC know how to improve their programming. Failing that, I just may have to get satellite TV!
Ugly at uglychart has a running "survivor" contest for stock market blogs. (Jaloti is coming up fast--while I'm not sure I want to get voted off the island, I notice that in the real survivor, getting voted off often led to TV appearances, so maybe its not so bad!)
And finally, another new blog for my list--the Alchemy of Trading, which was featured in Barron's this week. Looks like another one I'll have to follow!
Weighing in on the Roundtable so far are Ron Sen, and Levi Bauer; other Roundtable members are Tom at Sixth World, Bill Cara, Kaushik Gala, and yours truly.
Speaking of my Roundtable brothers, Ron Sen has his usual weekend plethora of posts, with six so far. Galatime pointed to another good resource on options. Tom Ott at Sixth World brings us up to date on some changes at his site. Bill Cara once again presents an outstanding review of the week. Read it for yourself, but just a hint--he thinks there is more downside risk than upside potential in most US equities at this point. And Levi links to the other Soothsayer of Omaha.
Speaking of Buffett, Taylor Tree made mention of an interesting book--that examines the trading of Warren Buffett, not the "favorite holding period is forever"Buffett, but the buying and selling Warren Buffett. Looks like good stuff.
Chairman MaoXian whose newsletter came out yesterday, also had some great excerpts from the other Chairman's letter. Check out his chat (Mao's, not Warren's) every weekday 8:30-9:30 Eastern time.
Stockcoach bemoans his lack of a position in energy stocks.
Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research had a couple interesting notes--asking for any suggested questions for a hedge fund panel, and suggesting that others on the internet may want to join in an open source equity research project.
TraderMike read a couple charts--NVT and THQI.
Byrne's Marketview gave in and said the "M" word. Well, I guess somebody had too.
Material Change linked to a free, open-source VoIP platform for embedded devices. (gotta show my geek side every now and then.)
Random Roger made a great suggestion that we should read, and let CNBC know how to improve their programming. Failing that, I just may have to get satellite TV!
Ugly at uglychart has a running "survivor" contest for stock market blogs. (Jaloti is coming up fast--while I'm not sure I want to get voted off the island, I notice that in the real survivor, getting voted off often led to TV appearances, so maybe its not so bad!)
And finally, another new blog for my list--the Alchemy of Trading, which was featured in Barron's this week. Looks like another one I'll have to follow!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)