Loser List for February 23, 2005

No more gloating about being on the right side of gold, oil, and the dollar--it's all about what's happening now.
COMPQ looks like it could go to 2000.
SINA and SOHU gapped right to the 200d and pulled back-funny how that works
ASTM--bring back the fork
BOOM--interesting chart--is that a buyable gap up, or a failed test of top? I'm not sure, so I'm staying away; if you've got an edge here go for it.
ALEX one of my long term holds (they own a lot of Hawaiian real estate carried on the books at 50 year old prices) , nice uptrend, this may be a buyable pullback above 42.
CTIC still looking like a failed breakout. Short with a stop at 11
GLOW might be a buyable pullback--if it shows some strength, long with a stop about 2
LCBM--strong uptrend, some range contraction, long with a 16 stop?

Pennies--if you've got any spare change, you might look at one of these slot machines:
PMU --breaking out--stop at 0.6
MUCL might take a poke at this one, long, with a stop at 0.40
SUOG, long above 0.20 and free gas!
IINT if you've got anything left over, might go long if it shows strength, stop about 2.4

Read what this list is about and check out the disclaimer.

Haiku

South Korean bank
Doesn't want to buy the buck
makes Jaloti bucks

Floor traders 1, Greenpeace 0

What happens when you screw with raw capitalism:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1487741,00.html

WHEN 35 Greenpeace protesters stormed the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) yesterday they had planned the operation in great detail.
What they were not prepared for was the post-prandial aggression of oil traders who kicked and punched them back on to the pavement.
“We bit off more than we could chew. They were just Cockney barrow boy spivs. Total thugs,” one protester said, rubbing his bruised skull. “I’ve never seen anyone less amenable to listening to our point of view.”
Another said: “I took on a Texan Swat team at Esso last year and they were angels compared with this lot.” Behind him, on the balcony of the pub opposite the IPE, a bleary-eyed trader, pint in hand, yelled: “Sod off, Swampy.”

Don't you just hate . . .

. . . those pundits with selective memory who are always plugging their right calls and forgetting their wrong ones?
(sigh)I can't help it.
I'm one of them.
With today's moves in gold, oil, and the dollar, doesn't this Haiku look like I knew something?
Yeah, like a stopped clock knows something :>)

Loser List for February 22, 2005

Oil indices XOI and OIX look overextended and due for a correction, but when? If you're in the oils, trailing stop. If not in, wait for a pullback.
LENF --another BB, does range contraction ... at 5?
MFLX--if it shows some strength, it might be a buy with a stop at 22.
MUCL--if you've got beer money you don't need, take a flier with a stop at 0.40
ADAM buyable pullback stop at 6?
FFIV long stop at 51
NAT buyable pullback at 50?
PLUM--consolidating above 5, and maybe some of that range contraction stuff as well
TKF, long, stop 19

How to use this list. As always, read the disclaimer.

Just to show I'm not just a short term trader

Another one of those Top Performers lists--This is top 25 of 1994-2004.

http://www.thinkequity.com/blog/reports/topperformers.pdf

(note--I suspect #2 doesn't include the past couple months . . .)
1. APOL Apollo Group, Inc.
2. CREE Cree, Inc.
3. DRL Doral Financial Corp.
4. QCOM QUALCOMM, Inc.
5. SHFL Shuffle Master, Inc.
6. DHI D.R. Horton Inc.
7. AMHC American Healthways, Inc.
8. OSK Oshkosh Truck Corporation
9. WFMI Whole Foods Market, Inc.
10. SBUX Starbucks Corporation
11. SLM SLM Corporation
12. COF Capital One Financial Corp.
13. RYL The Ryland Group, Inc.
14. TECH Techne Corporation
15. EV Eaton Vance Corp.
16. HAR Harman International Industries Inc./DE/
17. TOL Toll Brothers, Inc.
18. MSCC Microsemi Corporation
19. CAI CACI International Inc
20. HARB Harbor Florida Bancshares, Inc.
21. NTY NBTY, Inc.
22. BZH Beazer Homes USA, Inc.
23. JKHY Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
24. ZQK Quiksilver, Inc.
25. CDWC CDW Corporation

George Orwell and Blogging

The fact that a loser like me can just set up a blog and actually have people read it, got me to revisit a recurrent thought I've had--that George Orwell in 1984 got it half right and half wrong. Orwell's "negative utopia" had ubiquitous "telescreens", something he conceived of as a television set that could both receive and transmit; it could both feed you the government's line, and spy on how closely you were following it. With computers, laptops, web cameras, and everywhere internet access, we're basically there. What Eric Blair (Orwell's real name) couldn't quite see was that all this recieving and transmitting could go in many directions. Being a good socialist, he only saw the central planning model, where "the word" goes out from one location to all, and the return path is from all back to the central location. He didn't (apparently) envision telescreens that were peer-to-peer, to use the term loosely, where any one can see and talk to and write to any other one (or many other ones), where in fact this giant network of two-way telescreens that we call the internet lets us choose from a multiplicity of voices, not be forced to hear just one.
Yeah, ok, the markets need to open back up so I don't get too philosophical . . . .

Interesting site and post

With the US markets closed today, it might be a good day to catch up on reading, etc. Check out Michael Taylor's TaylorTree site. He's got a lot of good stuff with some interesting insights. He made a comment on the move into electronic medical records and how QSII might benefit from that. He also linked to a fascinating interview of Bob Hoye from institutionaladvisors.com: "The world is long inflation and short the dollar." Definitely some "against the crowd" views there; it's worth the read.

Metaphysical Haiku

Not only does God
Play dice with the universe
He bets martingale

Sunday Night Charts for February 20, 2005

All weekly charts.
Let's start with a new one.
The Dow Jones Utility Average

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Trendline intact. Lots of support below based on volume and prior highs. Still a bull run.



Next is the Nasdaq Composite

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Despite the action of the past few weeks, the longer term trendline is still intact.

The CRB Weekly

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
I worried here and here about the trend maybe being over, but it looks like temporary violation of the trendline may be reversed. Looks more like the bull is continuing than ending.

As confirmation of the CRB, here is the CME stock chart

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Despite a nasty gap down on the daily the other day, trendline is intact.

Here is Gold

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Again, the bull continues.

Next is West Texas Intermediate Crude (oil, that is, black gold, Texas Tea)

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Not even really overextended.
However the Oil index, representing oil equities, is a little different story.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Definitely overbought, based on the RSI, the Bollinger Bands, the distance above the 50d and 200d, and probably any other criteria known to man. However, overbought can stay overbought for a long time. Additionally, check out late '04--same story, parabolic move up, overbought, but corrected not by dropping but by marching in place. Could the oil stocks correct from here--sure, but it may be by stagnating rather than dropping. It also may occur 10%, 20% above here. Thus, if you're in--trailing stop. If you're out, might want to wait and see.

Finally is the USD

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
continuing its downtrend as I called here and here.
Good luck and have a great week!

Weekend Wazzup for February 20, 2005

My roundup of the Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- is here.
Weighing in on the Roundtable today are Tom at Sixth World, Ron Sen, Bill Cara, Kaushik Gala, Levi Bauer , and yours truly. The stock is AAPL, and I think everybody has some useful insights, even if we all pretty much came to the same conclusion.
Speaking of my roundtable brothers, it looks like Tom may have some big news soon. Good luck, Mr. and Mrs. Sixth World!
Ron Sen has changed the name of his blog to Technically Speaking. Ron, I don't care what you call it, it's still great stuff. He had a whole plethora of posts covering a wide range of topics, including many charts. He coined the best nickname this week: "Abby-normal Joseph Cohen."
Bill Cara had, as he usually does, an outstanding review of the week. I was somewhat surprised to see him on the same side of the LEXR trade as Tobin Smith. Maybe I need to look at that one.
Levi the Soothsayer of Omaha had what I consider a model of evaluating a stock--take a look at his review of AAPL.
Moving on and picking a name at random, Roger Nusbaum had a couple very insightful comments--one of them being a more in depth view of something I commented on as well. He also asks if a bell is ringing for Brazil, Russia, India and China. I said it before I'll say it again, I can always count on Roger for insights I don't get elsewhere.
Always providing insight is Chairman MaoXian, whose newsletter came out a day early this weekend. He's not taking more donations for it at this time, but he's still the man! ;>) Check out his chat every weekday 8:30-9:30 Eastern time.
Also check out Byrne's Marketview who has a couple observations on the Verizon-MCI deal.
CommodityTrader noted that the price of copper is nearing an all-time high. (Still hasn't done anything for my position in MKRR, though.)
Ugly at uglychart also weighs in with his view of AAPL. There has been some good natured back and forth about this. I was also interested to see his review of Shaolin Soccer, a movie that I enjoyed as well.
New on my list of blogs is Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research--he links to Jaloti, how bad can he be! ;>)
TraderMike has been quiet so far this weekend. He's probably busy reading the rest of us. :>)

Roundtable on AAPL

This week's Roundtable stock is AAPL. Joining me in evaluating it are Tom Ott, Kaushik Gala, Levi Bauer, Ron Sen, & Bill Cara. I try pretty hard not to look at my colleagues' evals before I write mine, because I don't want to bias myself. I have to confess this week I glanced at Levi's; frankly, after seeing it I'm tempted to write "just read Levi's write-up, I can't add anything intelligent to that"--he put together a disciplined, thorough, step by step comprehensive look at it that is just outstanding. Nevertheless, I'll try to say something semi-intelligent and vaguely appropriate.
Apple to me is one of those "cult" companies and products. There are fanatics who think Apple's products are "genius", and who think Jobs is a visionary pioneer, and then there are people like me who say, "yeah, that's kinda cool, but Dell makes pretty much the same thing cheaper, and Whizbango makes something similar for a whole lot cheaper."
If this sounds derogatory, I apologize; I don't mean it that way--what I really mean to say is that I just don't get it, it being Apple's products or the company. To me computers become more and more of a commodity every year, and why one product or one company deserves a premium is unclear to me. However, just because I don't "get" something doesn't mean it can't work.
Right now it does look like Apple the stock is commanding a premium compared to other computer manufacturers. It sports a PE of 70, compared to Dell's 30, and the industry average of 24, and a PS of 3.6, compared to Dell's 2 and the industry's 1.5. Yeah, but its a fast grower right now, you say--except that its PEG ratio is 2, compared to Dell's1.1 and the industry's 1.3. Now, I know this is just a cursory look at simple numbers, but sometimes you don't have to put the fat person on a fancy scale to know that he's fat. I don't see any way to call this company a "buy" on a fundamental basis--the time to do that was late '02-early '03 when it was priced in the low teens and, as I recall, had 12 bucks per share in cash. Of course, then there were rumblings that Apple was "over" (that's always the way it is, isn't it?).
Let's look at some technicals. I think those are a pretty simple stratightforward story as well.
Here is the weekly chart for AAPL

courtesy of stockcharts.com

While it certainly has come real far real fast, I wouldn't short it--its come this far, who's to say it can't go up another 20,30,50, or even 100 points? When a stock has risen like this, I think it's a coin flip as to whether the next 20-30 points will be up or down. Thus, I have no edge in picking the direction here. I will say that a simple glance at the chart shows me support at 60, from the consolidation there, and the fibonacci retracement. If we get a pullback to about 60, and then some strength again, one could justify going long again with a stop just below 60.
The money quote: Any way you look at this one, it's expensive. If you're lucky enough to be in this one from a lot lower, two words: trailing stop. If you're not in this one, I'd stay out. I wouldn't do anything till after a significant correction.

Fox Saturday Morning "Business Bloc" for February 19, 2005

Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows--
All four shows had a lot of the usual pointless back and forth macro talk--housing- is it a bubble, is tech coming or going, etc. A lot of this seems to be the same-old same-old every week, so I basically ignore most of it unless there is some unusual insight (rare) and concentrate on the specific stock mentions.
Bulls and Bears
Had a "Scoreboard" segment which was a review of guests' previous picks, good and bad. The two most interesting things in this segment were 1) they generally only talk about stocks with a market cap greater than 500 million on this show, so they had to make exceptions for KKD and LEXR; and 2) nobody said anything about a stop loss being important in the case of some of these bad picks. As for specifics, Tobin Smith scored with picking MSO but now says sell it; also had picked LEXR (loser) but said he's buying it again(he said it has $2 in cash per share). Scott Bleier had a winner with LSS and currently says hold it; his big loser was GNSS. Perma-bull Joe Battipaglia picked NMGa which he says is still a hold but he had said avoid EK which subsequently racked up some gains.(Kinda ironic that the perma-bull's "avoid" pick was a winner.) Pat Dorsey picked NOK which he called still a hold but had picked KKD last May(he said he missed some warning signs). Gary Kaltbaum had a winner in MAR (still a hold) but a loser in LLY.
In the predictions segment Tobin Smith called for a test of the Nasdaq bottom and then a rally, Joe Battipaglia said buy SGP and BMY, Pat Dorsey liked DV and Gary Kaltbaum said MSFT will sink.
Cavuto
Lots of pointless macro talk but this interesting exchange in regard to the housing bubble question-- Ben Stein said there is a shortage of home inventory in Southern California, and Jim Rogers compared that to when the pundits said there was a shortage of stock in 1968, right at the top. Next was a segment on how well C, TYC, TWX have done since scandals and bad news. Rogers says buy ABB and short FNM and the homebuilders but Charles Payne says go long FNM. (Insert your favorite comment about it takes two sides to make a market) Payne also recommended RHI.
Forbes on Fox
Had a rather non-specific discussion about whether cable companies or phone companies were a better buy. Mentioned as a speculative buy was CHTR , as a possible takeover was CMCSA, also mentioned was VZ, supposedly cheap at 13x earnings.
Cashin In
Wayne Rogers says oil, gas and natural resources are still strong and he mentioned PKZ, PTR, BR, VLO, BHP saying he owns them all. He also mentioned TSRA. Jonathan Hoenig says utilites and reinsureance are the trends he sees. As usual he managed to mention a number of tickers he owns in passing: PBR E COP BP XOM RD. (In case it isn't clear I appreciate this--I watch these shows to get specific stocks to look into). His featured pick was Brazilian utility ELP and he also mentioned SBS CPL CIG. When he was challenged that their dividends were realtively low, he said he owns them for the capital appreciation more than the divys. Danielle Hughes picked ERICY and said she owns it. Jonas Max Ferris picked BCS, in part because he believes them to be in the running to manage private social security accounts. Wayne Rogers liked the stock and said it has a great website. Ferris also picked ANPI as a speculation for drug coated stents--he's looking for a surprise on earnings next week.

Thanks

I'd just like to take a moment to thank everyone who's sent a tip, everyone who's sent an email, or posted a comment and especially everyone who's just stopped by and looked at a page or two on my site. I started this effort as a way to just get my thoughts and plans down in black and white as a way to help me in my trading; I continue to be pleasantly surprised, gratified and flattered that so many people actually are reading what I write.
I'm going to keep writing, and I hope y'all keep reading.
Thanks again.

TA vs. FA

Byrne had a thought provoking post about Technical Analysis. He certainly is pretty open minded about it for a fundamentals guy. I sorta agree and sorta disagree with him though. Money quote: "One of the crucial differences between fundamentals and technicals in this respect is that fundamental analysis is about taking a lot of data and applying a few rules, whereas technical analysis involves a little data (prices and volume) and a lot of rules. "
Certainly, TA only uses price and volume as data--everything else is derived from that. As for a lot of rules, I think that depends on the implementation. Certainly there are a lot of rules out there, but I'm not sure that the successful use of TA depends on using a lot of them--in fact quite the contrary; I think the more successful TA traders use only a few simple rules.
He also said, "However, most of what it (technical analysis) offers is the same thing fundamental analysis offers: Confidence. I'll go out on a limb and hypothesize that whether or not there's any real science behind the discipline of picking stocks, people who are confident that they're right (and can admit it when they're wrong) will do better than the rest." Mostly, I agree with this--especially with the "can admit it when they're wrong" part. I think an essential component of any successful approach is that you pick some criteria by which your thesis will be proven wrong, and set up a contingency plan for what you will do then (i.e., close your position).
In my view what makes TA useful is that to, some degree, EVERYBODY trades on price. The Warren Buffetts of the world say, I'm buying KO below 40 and not a penny more--so the technician says the volume coming in and every dip below 40 get pushed back up to form a nice hammer or whatever you're calling the formation(support). The average Joe trader says I'm underwater on INTC, so everytime it gets back to my entry point at 24, I'm gonna sell and use the money for table dances (note, NOT a work-safe link) and booze. This shows up on the chart as well(resistance.) Oversimplified, but you get the idea.

A little housekeeping about the Loser List

Every day I post the "Loser List". I give it this name because I call myself Just Another Loser On The Internet. This is a list that I work off of to make trades, based mostly on technicals. Usually, I am looking at something that is trending, has moved against the trend ("pulled back", if in an uptrend), and is now resuming its trend. (Otherwise known as "buying strength on weakness" or "selling weakness on strength".)My time frame is nearly always at least a couple days, and sometimes much longer.
It certainly is not a recommendation to buy or sell, because, after all, if you remember from the disclaimer, I am not a registered investment advisor and thus could not make such recommendations. Obviously, anybody has to due their own due diligence and look at all the factors that might be important to them in buying or selling a stock. So, take the names you see on my list, and use them as a starting point for your own evaluation. Or maybe you should just fade me, that might be a plan . . . ;>)

MSFT shows its m4d sk1llz

Very interesting to see article at Microsoft.com on l33t ( pronounced "leet"in case you didn't know), also known as "hackz0r" or "h4kz0r" ("hack-sore"). If you didn't know what the kids these days are up to, this is a bit of an introduction. It did sort of remind me a bit of my parents' generation passing information to each other about what us kids were up to ("Marijuana is referred to by many names: maryjane, hash, reefer, pot, stash, lid, key") of course, they would get the syntax wrong, and leave out the latest names. There always seems to be an element of "those kids have their own lingo to hide their shenanigans from us" and that's probably true. Frankly (and to get semi-serious for only a minute I promise) as the parent of a teenager I worry very little about what he does on the internet; with only a few exceptions (writing viruses, etc.) they don't get into trouble or run into harm on the net, its when they leave the net and go out into the real world and get wasted, drive cars, play grab-ass and try to get into each other's pants that the real trouble happens.
The more time they spend on the net calling each other "n00b" and discussing their "m4d sk1lz", the less time they have to get into real trouble.

Loser List for February 18, 2005

ADAM--buyable dip?- stop at 5.5
DDDC-buyable pullback? stop at 5
CTIC fake out break out? (thanks makin) short below 10?
GTEL--want to play a BB penny--buy the pullback, stop at 0.25--or you could spend the money on booze, it'd probably be more rewarding
CTCHC--another penny, stop at 0.65
PMU--penny breaking but--if it gets above the 200day at 0.64, might be worth picking up a couple shares
ASTM --gotta hold 3, or the fork gets stuck in it(again).

a comment and my reply

DrGood commented on my post, asking whether the Canadian oil/gas royalty income trusts PGH, PVX,PWI aren't dangerous in a rising interest rate environment. My initial response was, I don't think so, because I'd always assumed that these high dividend payers (they're currently paying around 14% or so, though some of this is return of capital, since they are depleting assets) are correlated with the price of oil, not interest rates. But then I thought, hey, maybe I'm wrong (I am Just Another Loser on The Internet, after all) and maybe they will act more like preferred stocks and bonds and fall in price as rates rise.
So I looked at some charts on stockcharts.com. Let me simply line up the weekly price charts of PVX, the CBOT treasury index, and West Texas Intermediate Crude.



courtesy of stockcharts.com

Look and judge for yourself.
Maybe there is a bit more of a correlation with interest rates than I would have thought--look at the fall in treasuries in June-July 03 and the slide in PVX at the same time. Of course, Treasuries slid again in Apr 04, and PVX didn't change much.Surprising to me is that the correlation with crude prices is not as good as I might have thought, just by eyeballing it. Let me know what ya'll think.

Loser List for February 17, 2005

The resistance levels I identified on gold and the naz seemed to have held. I predict they will hold until they don't.
MUCL another penny breaks out--and Ron Sen is ashamed to admit he is long from about 0.17--way to go Ron.
ALGN still keep an eye out for a short below 9
ASTM may well have put in a short term bottom at 2.5--once it crosses 3, resistance is at 3.8
NAT if you want to "buy strength on weakness", now is your chance here, at 51 with a stop at 49-50
NDAQ--the poor man's CME-buy the whole friggen' nasdaq for 10 bucks
OCR -short- overhead resistance is at 32.5
PLUM consolidating above 5, does range contraction . . .?
VGZ-long with a stop at 3.68
CGREF if you're going to trade a penny stock with 7K daily volumes, this is as good as any. Long with a stop at 1.55
The canroys, PGH, PWI, and PVX all found dip buyers yesterday including jaloti
Wait. . .
Where's my disclaimer?

Haiku

Yahoo message boards
Give Jaloti lots of hits
Keep it comin', dogs!

The speed of light is too slow

Material Change links to an interesting article claiming exactly that.
(I think this is my best article title since this one.)

"Beaten, ----ed, and driven from the land"

I love the yahoo finance boards. What makes this post really special is that the words are those of the CEO of Overstock.com.
For more on the story, read the other posts in the thread.

Loser List for February 16, 2005

ALGN--might be time to short again, with a stop about 9
ASTM--wait, take out the fork!!Long and strong, until it crosses 2.5, then stick the fork back in!
CTCHC--five letters, a nice chart, and at 67 cents it's cheaper than a lottery ticket. What more do you want?
PMU--only three letters, but even cheaper at 60 cents. Buy a couple shares, what have you got to lose?!
CULS--the costco of American Samoa is a buy above 9.
DCTH support at 3 on this one.
NVTL nice entry point for a short with a stop about 14
TZOO--its still long above 50 and short below, but now range contraction is followed by ...
VGZ--nice little pullback, long if it stays above 3.75
CNR--pulled back, and there seem to be buyers in the mid 1.30s

Wait for the beep, listen to the disclaimer . . .

"Market" Haiku

Nasdaq stock market
Trades on Nasdaq stock market
Cheaper than the Merc

No big whup

Just a couple charts


courtesy of stockcharts.com
The COMPQ is at 2089--I've had 2090 marked as major S/R for a while


courtesy of stockcharts.com
GOLD on the daily broke thru the uptrend at the end of January--and now it's come up to that line from underneath. Next?

Loser List for February 15, 2005

CTCHC and PMU--if you want undadultered pure mo-mo penny stock plays, here they are--place your bets!
MERQ maybe a long above 46.5
PLUM consolidating for the next move up?
RMCF--breakout, then pullback--stop at 17-17.5
ASTM--stick a fork in it?
SYMC--risen back to resistance--short with a stop above 22.5??
TEAM--this chart keeps drawing me in but DON'T DO IT THE VOLUME IS TOO LOW!! (Sorry, I'm ok now)
TZOO--if 50 doesn't hold, look out below
KBH still looks like a good long entry above 110-112
KKD is going to zero.

Market Haiku

Go long gold, black gold
Short the buck against anything
Buy some smokes also

A beautiful chart

Time to short the dollar again . . .

courtesy of stockcharts.com

Rises to the level of the previous major low, and falls again.
A thing of beauty.

Multitasking

Loser List for February 14, 2005

ADAM may be a buy above 5
AFFX might have found support at 40
ALDN looks like a sell below 22.5, buy above 25
ARBA if you really have to catch a falling knife, you might try to buy this with a stop below 7.5
ASR--pullback after a breakout, maybe buy above 29 with a stop below 28
AVB if it can't get above 70, a short?
BEBE pullback after a breakout--buy, stop about 27.5
CENT is breaking out-- if you buy those, buy this
DCTH--if it shows a little strength here, might be a buy with a stop below 3
DDDC breakout above 6.
HANS uptrend, looks to have pulled back to support. Might be a buy with a stop at 37
ISCA a solid breakout above 55
OCR might be a short below 32
TINY gapped up and may have resumed the uptrend. Stop below 13.5
TZOO 50 looks to be the line in the sand here--Buy above, sell below?
WCG long and strong--as long as its above 35
AOC--maybe Spitzer's dogs have been called off--looks strong above 25.
KBH--don't fight the homebuilders--looks like a pullback to support at 110.
Has MRK put in a bottom? If your gonna buy, stop at 28 if you're short term, or 25 if you're longer term.
NFI has been a falling knife--and a lot of buyers caught it between 31 and 33--that may provide some support. But it's still a falling knife.
SU has broken out to new highs above 37. Since it has large fields of oil sands that are only profitable if oil stays above 25-30$ a barrel, do the buyers have a specific opinion on oil, as well?

Sunday Night Charts for 2/13/05

Tonight I want to focus on commodity charts. Though my long term view is that of a commidiites bull, I have been a bit of a Nervous Nellie lately, wondering if the bull might be faltering.
First lets look at the weekly chart of the CRB.


courtesy of stockcharts.com

Yeah, its cracked the uptrend line, and rose back to meet it underneath. Its crunch time--will it bounce off the uptrend line and head down, to confirm breaking it, and will it rise above the uptrend line again, making this just a fake-out uptrend violation? Tune in next week--at any rate, I wouldn't commit big bucks in new money either way.

Next let's look at the weekly chart of GOLD

courtesy of stockcharts.com
As many times before, nice bounce off the uptrend line--the technicals say perhaps a good buying opportunity in the yellow metal.

Now let's look at OIL -- West Texas Intermediate Crude

courtesy of stockcharts.com
Bit of a pullback, but still solidly in an uptrend. Don't fight black gold.

Finally lets look at CME weekly chart.

courtesy of stockcharts.com
Bit of a scare there, but the long-term uptrend is still in place.
My conclusion--don't sell commodities yet, and at least in the case of gold and oil, this may be a buying opportunity.

Remember the Alamo--and the disclaimer.

Sixth World's Roundtable--fundies

As promised, a quick take on the fundamentals of TM and A.
Again, also weighing in are Kaushik Gala, Ron Sen ,Levi Bauer and of course, Thomas Ott at Sixth World.
Somebody (Peter Lynch, maybe?) says that there are no extra points given for "degree of difficulty" in analyzing stocks--the complicated stories don't necessarily make you any more money than the simple ones. Somebody else (John Train, I believe, but I can't swear to it) once said that the auto industry was one of the great capital destroyers of modern industry--GM and F, over the past half-century, actually have had to consume capital in the form of constantly issuing new stock in order to stay alive. With that background in mind, let's look at some simple metrics on TM.
Price to sales is 0.74, which in the abstract sounds cheap, but it compares to 0.14 for F, 0.11 for GM, 0.6 for HMC, and 0.53 for the industry as a whole. Similarly, TM's PE is 11, compared to 7 for F, 5 for GM, and 10 for HMC, 15 for the industry as a whole. No screaming value here. Is Toyota a great company? No doubt--my wife drives a Sienna, and it has more room inside than my Ford Expedition, which is a larger, more expensive, and less fuel efficient vehicle. No one could argue that Toyota's products aren't among the best. But the way to make money on the stock of a great company is to buy it at a good price, and my brief take on it is that it's not cheap here.

As for Agilent, same sort of thing. Its PE is 33, compared to 24 for IBM and 23 for the industry as a whole. PS is 1.58, with IBM at 1.63 and the industry at 1.22. PEG, or price to earnings to growth (I know, some people swear by this metric and some people swear at it) is 1.62 for A, 1.66 for IBM and 1.3 for the industry. Again no screaming value here.

In summary, I don't see any great value here based on the fundies. Maybe Kaushik, Ron ,Levi or Tom will be able to demonstrate some value, and I bow to their wisdom. But for old Jaloti, I'd stick to trading the technicals on both of these, buying a breakout of the trading range and/or selling a breakdown.

Sixth World's Roundtable

This week's Roundtable stocks are Toyota (TM) and Agilent Technologies (A). Also weighing in are Kaushik Gala, Ron Sen ,Levi Bauer and of course, Thomas Ott at Sixth World.
In this post I'll take a look at some technicals on each of these stocks. I'm taking a little longer term perspective on these, so I'll be using weekly charts. As a little background, I tend to be pretty simplistic with regard to looking at technicals--I'm just not smart enough to put together twenty different charts and indicators, and besides, when I try to do that I lose money faster. Generally for me its one chart, a little price, a little volume, some highs/lows and a trend line or two.
From a technical perspective, to me these stocks do have something in common--the Chairman's bromide, "Range contraction is followed by range expansion."
First, Toyota--again, weekly chart.

courtesy of stockcharts.com
I've noted the trading range for the past 9 months or so between about 74 and 82. That's a pretty tight range. Additionally, you can see the long price by volume bars for that range, meaning a lot of the volume in the stock over the past 4 years has been in that range. I see this as additional "fuel" to accelerate a move outside the range--less supply of stock at prices above 82 or below 74. One other point is that the bottom of this range is at an old high from three years ago, perhaps providing additional support. So from a long term technical standpoint, I'd be interested in buying a breakout above 82 and selling a breakdown below 74. In between, I'd let the shorter term traders take the points.

Next is the Agilent weekly chart.

courtesy of stockcharts.com
Again, a tight trading range between about 20 and 30 for the past 9 months or so, and again, looking at the price by volume bars, a LOT of volume really between about 22 and 28 or so. Purely by the technicals, I'd be more tempted to sell a breakdown in the teens, and buy a breakout above 30.
Gala had an options play on A here.

I'll make at least a brief comment about the fundamentals a little later.

Weekend Wazzup for February 13, 2005

My roundup of the Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- is here.
On the net, Random Roger had a different take on Bill Cara's review of ETFs. (Insert comment about it takes two sides to make a market here.) Roger also has his perspective on Bill O'Neill's 8% stop loss rule.
Speaking of Bill Cara, he has his usual thorough review of the week, and makes a couple option recommendations on SNDK and AAPL.
Also making option recommendations is GalaTime who reviewed his trade in DELL that is doing pretty well. Keep an eye on his option plays, he's had some really good ones.
Heavy on the specifics as well as the big picture is Ron Sen who started the weekend quoting Ringo Starr(I've always liked that song), and then moved on to a series of interesting looking charts. This morning he posted his section of the Roundtable on TM.
The Roundtable continues with Tom at Sixth World posting his thoughts on TM. Also to be weighing in on the Roundtable today (besides the aforementioned Kaushik Gala and Ron Sen are Levi Bauer and yours truly.
Speaking of Levi the Soothsayer of Omaha, he had a nice position sizing exercise worth reading.
Always worth reading is Chairman MaoXian's newsletter, which is out now. Slip him a little something to get it, and tell him Jaloti is the man! ;>) Check out his chat every weekday 8:30-9:30 Eastern time.
Also check out Byrne's Marketview who catches us up with Joe Granville(what a blast from the past).
Ugly chart had a nice and relevant quote from Adaptation.
And least but definitely not least is The Man, TraderMike who channels Alan Farley and quotes Gary Kaltbaum, and comments that all the hammers on Thursday have changed shorts to longs.
That's wazzup with my peeps. See you monday!

Tufte Redux

Way back here I posted my review of design maven Edward Tufte's day long course. I mentioned sparklines, a kind of embedded-in-text graphics he talked about and said I would post examples. I intended at that time to scan in and post some examples he gave out, strangely enough of his proposal for using sparklines in stock/mutual fund tables. I decided there might be some copyright issues, so I won't post his, but I created a simple example of my own to illustrate his concept.



Basically, that's all there is to it. The idea really is to include graphics right in with the text--like smileys ;>)

Another blog on my list

Added a new blog to my list: Byrne's Marketview. The commentary looks excellent, and the lagniappe was seeing the Ayn Rand, Hayek, and Dave Barry books on the profile.

Loser List for February 11, 2005

At the risk of being premature, let me ring the bell and call "Gold, short term bottom, dollar short term top"
ACU--filled in the gap, might be a buy above 17
ADAM--may have pulled back to support, buy with a stop at 5
AFFX--might have found support at 40. Buy with a stop there.
PENN still a nice uptrend--might be an entry point here with a stop about 65
PLUM--still looks peachy with a stop below 5
PNRA has pulled back--if 48 holds as support it looks good.
There still is no I in TEAM, and no volume either--but its a nice breakout.
TGA, baby, still long and strong with a stop below 6.
TONS may have given an entry, with a stop at 74
TZOO-below 50 would be the time to short, if you like shorting breakdowns(and who doesn't?). WCG--maybe support at 35?
CNR maybe an entry point in this one with a stop about 1.3
Miners like NXG,RGLD,RIC,MNG, NEM,NAK, VGZ all showing some strength--although it is a pretty V-shaped. Dead cat bounce, or start of a new sustained move??( I guess that's a matter of timeframe)

Don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Haiku

Ron Sen quotes Yoda
"Do or do not, there is no try"
Yoda's short the spoos

"Random" thoughts on Commodities, China, and Memes

Random Roger (as he often does) had an interesting observation the other day about commodities. He referenced a Jim Rogers quote to the effect that one can't be a good investor without understanding commodities. Roger makes the point that the supply and demand factors in commodities are important to understand, and that much of the recent strength in equities likely has something to do with commodity factors. My long term view has been that we would see continued strength in commodities, although of late I have questioned this. Certainly, there has been some weakness, and I think the next week or two will give us a good idea of whether commodities (ex-oil, which still is nothing but strong) are finished for now or whether the bull continues.
Taking it a step further, there has been a lot of talk that much of the strength in commodities has been due to the economic awakening in China. You can easily find a lot of statistics about the boom there-the equivalent of a city the size of Houston is built there every year, there are 4 times as many cars in 2004 compared to 1994, etc. However, this has become so commonplace an idea as to become a meme, and when something is so widespread everybody knows it, I wonder if it isn't over.
Fade the memes. Sounds like it could be a meme, eh?

Gold miners, jaloti and Bill Cara

I see Bill Cara is calling this morning to buy some gold miners. I said here that it looked like some of them may have put in a bottom. Now somebody who knows what they're talking about has said it too.

Loser List for February 10, 2005

ALGN- short on a break of 7.5
DCTH--has pulled back to 3--maybe a buy on a tight stop?
DESC--similarly, buy with a stop below 3.5
TEAM still looks like a buy above 11--darned low volume though
I'm in that TGA with a stop below 6.
WCG--this may be an entry point with a stop below 35
The gold miners from yesterday (BGO,MNG,RGLD) may indeed have put in bottoms-- but what's the timeframe?
LVLT down big, on huge volume--this stock has come back from the dead so many times I've lost count. Can it bounce again?

As always, you know . . .

haiku

Gala screens options
Finds the unusual volume
Thanks for Ideas!

Disciplined Growth Investors

New 13F from Disciplined Growth Investors. How can that not be a solid money management team--they're DISCIPLINED Growth Investors, for goodness sakes'.

Loser List for February 9, 2005

My biggest question is how low can that VIX go?
ACU stay with it long and strong above 19.
ACXM may be setting up a nice short with a stop above 23.5-24
ARBA was mentioned here; so far the technician was more correct than the fundamentalist.
OSTK looks like a short with a stop around 54-55.
Is PLUM finally looking peachy? Long and strong, as long as its above 5.
RIG--nice uptrend, but as always, entry point?
TASR--I think you could flip a coin as to which way this is going next.
TEAM--looks like a pullback after a breakout, if you're into stocks that trade 34K shares per day.
***TGA this is my play of the day. (Kiss of death). I plan to go long with a stop below 6--you probably ought to short it ;>)
ALEX has been in a nice long uptrend, and this may be a nice entry point, with a stop about 44.5
BGO might have found a bottom at 2.5. Or not.RGLD, NXG, MNG may also have found bottoms yesterday.

Quick, Watson. . .the disclaimer!

????Haiku????

Unfortunately
"Old McDonald Had a Farm"
Is not a haiku

Loser List for February 8, 2005

ACU--if it holds above that gap at about 19 looks like a long.
AVB--ran smack into resistance at 70. Short?
BEBE-breakout, if it can hold 29, may get some follow through.
CREE--Tom at sixth world and I have gone back and forth on this one--may have found support at 23, but realistically, there is probably too much chance of more downside.
ISCA--breaking out to new highs, but not very convincingly. Perhaps range contraction precedes range expansion?
LCBM--pause after a breakout? More upside coming?
NVEC--gotta figure the percentages favor the next move being down.
PENN--beautiful uptrend. Check it out if you haven't. Not sure about an entry point, though.
There is no "I" in TEAM, but there is a "U" in SUCK. (Sorry, TEAM is on the list but volume is awfully low--and there is no SUCK.)
TONS of steel, and tons of money if you've held since 20(not me). Nice chart, but again, entry??

Remember the disclaimer. Have a good day.

Haiku Maoxian

Range contraction is
Followed by range expansion
so says the Chairman

Loser List for February 7, 2005

USD has risen right to a previous low--the pattern has been for the next leg down to start here. If it doesn't, maybe the downtrend has paused?
ACU gap up open at 19, high at 19.5 but is low volume.
BEBE has broken out, open 28.27, high 29.38
DCTH may be at support at 3.2
FWHT in a downtrend, short if goes below 14.2
OMCL short if you can get it with a stop above 6.9
OSTK looks like a possible short at about 54.5 with a stop above 56
RESP breaking out to new highs at 59.85, nice complement to MO
RMI 3.5 is the line in the sand--might pop again if it can hold here
AA in a downtrend but has risen to previous resistance, short with a stop above 29.76, today's high
SOHU in a downtrend and gapped down, but there is support at today's low in the mid 14s. might short on a solid crack of 14.5
EK has broken out to new high of 34.8

Sunday night charts--A top in commodities?

My long term view has been that commodities will do well over the next few years. However--John Maynard Keynes once said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

Let's first look at the weekly charts--

CRB

courtesy of stockcharts.com
Commodities really making a good show of breaking that long term trend line, wouldn't you say?
On the other hand, they are still above the 50d EMA and well above the 200 d EMA.

Gold,

courtesy of stockcharts.com
Right on that uptrend line. Time to decide--will the support hold or crack?

OIL (West Texas intermediate)

courtesy of stockcharts.com
A pullback, but still a solid uptrend. Looks like some nice support in the low 40's.
So, the CRB and Gold bull runs look like they might be in trouble. Oil still looks good.
What other evidence is there?
The gold ETF GLD was introduced on November 18, and Gold's high so far occured on December 1--a new product being brought in right at the top? Nah, couldn't be!

On Friday I caught Bob Pisani on CNBC make some comment about membership prices in the NYSE v. The Chicago Merc . The upshot was that NYSE seat prices have been in a range since the top in 1999, while membership prices in the CME have risen sharply since then.
As one might expect, NYSE prices topped out right around the top in share prices. If CME seat prices top out--that would be worrisome.

To put it together--while oil still looks bullish, gold and the CRB are making me a little nervous. If you're in, I might keep a tight stop. If you're not in, it might be prudent to see a little strength before getting in.

As always, the disclaimer.

Sixth World's Roundtable on NEM

I appreciate being asked to contribute to this august group.NEM is a stock I've followed for a while, mostly because of my interest in the mining sector. A key fact about NEM is that it is the largest cap non-ADR gold miner, at about $17 billion. Only the Anglo-American ADRs (AAUK) is larger at a whopping $35 billion. Barrick (ABX) is third at about $12 billion. According to Yahoo finance, the whole industry's market cap is only $118 billion. A couple years ago somebody (I forget who) told me that if the mutual fund heavyweights ever decide to give some sort of significant weighting to gold miners, then 1) the whole industry would rise significantly, since it is relatively small, and 2) companies like NEM, AAUK, and to a lesser extent ABX would do the best, because they are the only ones with anything near a big enough market cap for the big boys to play in without emptying the pool when they take a dive, as it were. As it is, institutions already own 71% of NEM's float, and insiders another 10%. I was interested to see the chart Tom posted that showed the tremendous money flow into NEM since the start of the gold bull.So. . .I think over the longer term, if gold continues its bull run, NEM will do okay--if the big boys are buying miners, they have to buy this one. Over the short run, however, I think Tom made a great case that its overextended and you probably will get a chance to buy this one lower.

Roundtable

Thomas Ott from Sixth World was kind enough to invite my to join his Roundtable discussion. I posted my brief take on this week's stock, NEM, here and here .
Thanks again for the opportunity, Tom!

Weekend Wazzup for February 6 2005

Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows are summarized here.
Wazzup in the blogosphere--to pick a random spot--

Random Roger had a nice roundup of iShares v. CEF's for various foreign countries, and concluded that oftentimes the CEF might be the better "buy". In his Big Picture, he has a great Dick Vitale line about somebody being a "Dow-Joneser, always up or down"!

Also up is Sixth World's Roundtable, which discussed NEM.


Bill Cara talked about gold in his roundup of the week--He thinks gold will move up again when the dollar moves down. I also noticed he kinda likes the SBC-ATT deal, but not PG-G.


Ron Sen had a nice roundup as well--his email notednthe epidural steroid injection may have started to help the sciatica--hope you get better, Ron!


Email came from Roberto Pedone -- I checked out his blog and you should too.

You should also check out GalaTime, who had an interesting looking options play on TKLC.

Always interesting is Trader Mike who talked about that AskJeeves buying Bloglines story--like most everybody else, I'm asking what does it mean for me?

What Sunday means for me is that Chairman MaoXian's newsletter is out today--give him a little something for the effort to get it. It contains some great trading info. Talk with him (and some other notorious characters) in his weekday chat.

Finally,uglychart got my attention by mentioning shaolin monks. Xie xie nin.

Have a great week all!

Verizon Wireless Broadband

A few days ago, I promised a more complete review of mobile wireless broadband, and here it is.
At the risk of sounding like a shameless corporate tool, let me say that this service from VerizonWireless is pretty good-- its kind of like having WiFi everywhere.
First a little background. I run my operation primarily out of two separate undisclosed locations in the Valley of the Sun. One, let's call it Casa Jaloti, has a reliable cable internet connection, and is located in a hilly area that is notoriously poor for cellular phone reception. The second, lets call it Pueblo Jaloti, has an internet connection that is somewhat problematic. I don't have much control over the infrastructure there, I couldn't get my laptop hooked to the internet there, and I couldn't have access to my servers at Casa Jaloti.
Rather by accident (cheesy radio commercial) I stumbled upon VerizonWireless Wireless Broadband service using EVDO technology. The service is available in about 30 metropolitan areas right now, with more planned by the end of the year, and in much of the country that doesn't have the faster EVDO, you can get a slower but still slightly better than dialup 1xRTT signal. As an aside I don't really understand these geek acronyms, I'm just parroting them.
Anyway I signed up for the service. I received the 5220 PC Card (fits in the PC Card slot of laptops--see pictures below), and an installation CD. I paid 100 bucks for the card, and the service is 80 bucks a month with a one-year contract. I know, that's a lot of monthly jack. But stay with me. Note also that Verizon gives a 15 day get out of jail card return policy.
I installed the software and card, no sweat. At Casa Jaloti I only get a RTT (what Verizon calls National Access) signal, and even then with difficulty. Sometimes I only can log on when (I swear to God) I put my hand on the antenna. (I'm ordering a third party external antenna to see if this makes a difference). However, I do get a signal there and its comparable to dialup. This is what I expected--cell signals are sometimes problematic out there. For me, internet access at Casa Jaloti is not an issue; this at least gives me a reasonable backup.
Next I tried it at Pueblo Jaloti. I get a better signal there-usually EVDO (Broadband Access, in Verizon-speak), sometimes it slips down to RTT. I get speeds anywhere from 30 kbps download on National Access up to 300 Kbps on Broadband Access, according to dslreports.com, which is a good site for testing your connection. The speed would fluctuate wildly, even though I was in the same place. I got the impression this has to do with how many other customers are using the tower I'm connected to, but maybe that's just my simplistic view of things. I haven't tested ping latency, and I know at least for some things the geeks say this is more important.
I also tried it driving around in the car. Wow-795 Kbps while in the Wendy's parking lot. I seemed to get a much better and faster connection out there in the open. I felt like blogging while driving but somehow I thought it might be unsafe. Just a hunch.
Thursday I was at a rarely used third undisclosed location-lets call it Cueva Jaloti, because it might as well be a cave, deep in a building, right next to the underground parking garage. I can't even get a signal on my T-mobile cell phone there. Ever. I frankly didn't expect any signal-but there it was--RTT mostly, sometimes even EVDO. I got speeds up to 300Kbps at times.
Thus, with this I can get an internet connection anywhere in my area, and often a pretty good fast one. It was fine for most of the web/email/IM stuff that I do. You can even set up a VPN with it. I haven't done that, but I intend to, so I can access the Casa Jaloti servers from afar.
So, that's my story. Is it for everyone? No. The signal can be inconsistent, especially in a building. When its good, its very good--although its not like being an a LAN--300-500 Kbps is good, but a good cable/DSL/T1 hookup is of course better--I won't deny that for a minute. When its bad, its like the old days of dialup-but I always have been able to get some connection, so far, at least. If you're in one place all the time and can get broadband, you don't need this. But if you are even a little mobile and want a more reliable connection in more places, then check out broadband wireless from VerizonWireless.
FULL DISCLOSURE--yes, these are sponsored links--I might get a little something for the effort if you click them and sign up with Verizon. For the record, I'm paying full price for the service, and what I wrote is my honest opinion.

Haiku 2/5/5

Big tobacco wins
Jaloti says time to buy
Any other thoughts?

Tobacky

So MO, UST, et al are up big today with a favorable legal settlement. It's a good opportunity for me to give my view of tobacco. I believe tobacco stocks are EXCELLENT long term investments, although right here they are a tad pricey. I plan to add to my long term positions in these stocks on any pullbacks.

This is my qualitative big picture thinking. First let's leave aside the moral objections to investing in tobacco. If you have a moral objection to tobacco stocks, I respect it, and I wouldn't dream of trying to change it. My position is based on not having a moral problem with these companies.

Everyone knows these are wonderful businesses from a fundamental viewpoint, high free cash flow, addictive product, many smokers still worldwide, lots of room for Altria et al to grow in China, etc. I think most people would agree what keeps the price down is the liability risk. My view is that the settlement with the states' attorneys general did a lot to mitigate that risk in the future. Why? Because (money quote) it made the states and several large law firms partners in these companies by giving them a claim on their future cash flow. Heck, some states have even securitized this future cash flow by selling bonds against it. I think there is a lot of legal talent, both in state governments and in large law firms, people that write legislation and litigate it in court, that will not want to kill the goose that laid the golden egg, as it were. Thus, I feel pretty confident that further attempts to extort (perjorative word, I know, but that's my view) money from these companies will be fought tooth and nail by their partners in state governments and in private legal practice.

Tobacco. I don't buy the product, but I own the stocks.

More RSS

If you aren't into the RSS/newsreader game , why not? You should be. I wrote about it here.
Today's RSS feed of interest (to me at least) is the latest published patent applications (not patents granted, but applications) submitted to the US PTO.
via Paul Kedrosky.

Loser List for February 5, 2005

Gold is cracking the uptrend line on the daily chart, and touching it on the weekly, and all the individual gold stocks are oversold. Bounce here? Or is the bloom off this rose?
ATVI catches a bid at 23, but if it can't get above the high of 23.8 I'm out.
OXGN mentioned in the chairman's chat, opened at 5.68, went to 5.81, now at about 5.5. Its in a downtrend; this looks like a shorting opportunity to me--if you can get shares.
SGEN is in a downtrend, trying to rise, but can't get above 6.Short?
AOC catchin' a bid around 22.5
KBH those homebuilders just keep rockin. Probably don't want to chase here though.
TIP is back up with the strength in bonds.
FBR play that galatime mentioned the other day? It's an options play on earnings, which come out on Feb. 9, some maybe wait till next week?

Almost forgot . . . the Haiku

DJTCQ
Trump gets bankruptcy hearing
But who gets the hair?

Blogging

Random Roger had a nice post (not just because he linked me, although it helps;>)) that mentioned interactions amongst bloggers. I agree with him 100%--one of the many great aspects to this medium is that if what you say isn't quite right, somebody will let you know about it, to yours and your readers' benefit. I learned this early on, when I posted something that was flat out wrong, and Trader Mike pointed it out to me. At that time, I didn't even realize anyone was reading me, and here's a "name" in the market blog world leaving a comment on my site. Sure, I was chagrined at making a stupid mistake, but frankly it was one of the most encouraging things that has happened to me since I started this endeavor. Along the way, I've had very postitive interactions with Chairman MaoXian, Thomas Ott from Sixth World, Ugly at UglyChart, Galatime, as well as Roger and Mike and others, and I like to think that I get a little better at this (and maybe, heaven forbid, at trading and investing as well) with my interactions with my betters in the blogosphere.

Loser LIst February 3, 2005

A short list today.

ADAM seems to find bids around 5.5-5.7. More upside?
ATVI will drop to the top of the gap at 23 and rise again. Buy with a stop under 23?
Galatime's FBR straddle looks intriguing as well.

I'm not exactly sure why the list is so short some days. While there just may not be many set-ups, some days I suspect that its me. I tend to be pretty discretionary; perhaps more mechanical criteria might yield a more even distribution of possible set-ups. Some days everything looks like a possible play to me, other days almost nothing. Hopefully if I'm aware of this tendency, I can keep it from being a problem.

Haiku

Met Life buys Trav'lers
SBC buys ATT
Jaloti buys lunch

Loser List February 2, 2005

HIO junk bond fund has been in a slow steady decline since September. I'm not quite enough of a macro guy to know what that means.
IGR look this one up if you haven't. Global real estate fund, nice steady uptrend, nice divy too.
MFD also look this one up. Global utilities fund, again nice uptrend and nice divy.
AOC Spitzer may have called off the dogs and this may be a buy above 22.5
ACAS long term pullback buy above 33.
MNG seems to get bids everytime it pokes below 1.10
RIC ditto when down around 4.00
XMSR--"the rich man's SIRI" may have found some support around 31-31.5
CNR--Nicolas Darvas might start watching this one. At 1.51, all time high looks to be about 1.66
mandatory ASTM comment
ATVI gap up. Once again I'll invoke the Trader Mike rule #1 and say don't buy unless it cracks 23.6
ENWV again Trader Mike rule #1. Only look at it above 22. (Perhaps the Jaloti interpretation of this rule is "If you're going to buy the breakout, buy the breakout, not the #$&%$ profit taking pullback")
DCTH broke out, then pulled back to the old high of 3.4. I'm gonna guess Gary B. Smith would buy it above 3.4 with a stop just below.
ALGN has risen to the old low of 8.85. Short?
NVEC mentioned as a possible short yesterday. Still is today.
ASTM wouldn't do anything with this today but I do seem to get a bunch of hits everytime I mention it ;>)

Please, remember the disclaimer; check out the new donate button; if you need wireless think VerizonWireless; tip your waitresses; be careful driving home; buy bonds; THANK YOU, THANK YOU VERY MUCH!

Ron's Stock 'n Stuffer World

Ron Sen was kind enough to send me an email the other day. He's got a good-looking blog that I've added to my list. And he didn't have to make up a name, either!

I have seen the future . . .

mobile . . . wireless. . . broadband. And I don't mean Wi-Fi, I mean a fast wireless internet connection available over an entire metro area. For the last couple days, I've been using a new wireless broadband product from VerizonWireless that seems to pretty much deliver on what's promised. I plan on posting a more comprehensive evaluation and description in the next couple days, but for now, if you live in one of 20 or so US metro areas that VerizonWireless offers this product in, you might want to find out more.
Full disclosure: Yes, I am a Verizon affiliate and I get a piece of the action if anyone orders from this page. I am paying full price for the product, and I plan on telling the unvarnished truth about it, but, yeah, I have an incentive.
Like I said, I'll write more. In the meantime, any questions email me at harryjaloti@hotmail.com

UPDATE--I have since written a more complete review here.

Can't stop . . . The Haiku!

Random Roger says
CALPERS might buy the third world
Unless Google does

Loser List and Thoughts

DJ utilities breaking out to new highs
Gold trying hard to break the uptrend line
Oil the commodity and the stocks are still strong--I own some, but I drive an SUV so its a wash ;>)
ASTM is only a buy above 3.78
CME--I gave it its own post. I suppose if you've got more guts than me you might buy with a stop just below today's low; mostly, I think along with the CRB chart this may be a indicator of things to come.
GLD, the gold ETF, is down at 42. Along with the commodity chart, it looks like it has to hold here for the bull to remain intact.
AOC may get back in this one above 22.5.
LAB if this can stay above 9.8 this may prove to be a buyable dip.
CULS might be a buyable dip above 9--BTW this is an island warehouse club --Costco of Samoa, as it were. Whoever would have thought
TIP might be cracking the uptrend line.
NAT keeps rocking. Classic dilemna--probably best to wait for a pullback, but that might be 20 points higher.
ALGN short with a stop above today's high 8.7
NVEC thrusted above the 200 day, and now sinking. Might be a short.
URBN nice downtrend. Look at it for a short.

CME

I was going through my charts for the day, and I thought enough of this one to give it its own post. This is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, kind of the ultimate commodity play if you will. It has had a nice long run, stumbled a bit, and now gapped down 10% but has maybe found some support at 186 or so. Somebody was disappointed with the earnings call this AM, I guess. When you put this together with the possible uptrend break in the CRB I pointed out the other day, is it meaningful? Is the commodities bull over, or just taking a break?
Or not?

ASTM--give the people what they want

ASTM opened up at 3.57 and is currently trading higher. Follow the Trader Mike Rule #1 and wait for it. Check after 10:00-10:15 Eastern time, and don't even think about going long unless it's above the 10:00 high.

Warren Buffett

always fascinates me. I came across this blogger who had a chance to meet him.
http://darrenjohnson.blogspot.com/2005/01/wisdom-of-warren-buffett.html
Make sure you read the comments--I love the net--it proves that it takes (at least) two sides to make a market.

Trader (M)Ha(ik)u(e)

Trader Mike's the Man
He's staying in cash right now
The trend's your friend, right?

Loser List

First two are breakout picks
ADAM above 6
ASTM buy above open 3.45

Next two might be buyable dips for a longer term timeframe
FRE above 65
PCL above 35 or so

Next six are definitely trying to bottom fish-should probably fade me on these;>)
GLG may be finding support at 15.5 or thereabouts
MNG also may be finding support at 1.0-1.1
RIC ditto above 4
VGZ may be also have support at 3.7
SU at 31.5 time for a bounce?
CREE may have found some support at 23.5-24, but I've been wrong on this one before. You should probably check out Thomas Ott at Sixth World on this one, he's had it right and I've had it wrong.

And some odds and ends
GLOW uptrend with a pullback--buy at 2
IDTI has risen right to 200d at 11.77 and congestion. Could go up or down.
OSTK might have found support at 52
SEGU seems to get a bid everytime gets to 7

Haiku

No haiku tonight
I have nothing more to say
See you tomorrow