It appears that the Fox Saturday financial shows are pre-empted for coverage of the Holy Father's last days. If the shows are replayed, I'll try to catch them.
Instead, let me direct you over to Ron Sen's Saturday morning post, which I found to be a concise roundup of variety of interesting topics.
Saturday, April 02, 2005
Friday, April 01, 2005
Yet more Buffett worship
BlogginWallStreet has been debating my position on Buffett's ethics--the latest post is here, the earlier post is here.
While I obviously have a 180 degree different view, I think the give and take is useful--it has certainly helped me to clarify my own position in my mind.
(And it's helped my traffic:>) )
While I obviously have a 180 degree different view, I think the give and take is useful--it has certainly helped me to clarify my own position in my mind.
(And it's helped my traffic:>) )
Loser List for April 1, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
AEL a breakout, stop at 12.5
BKHM a breakout--but what's the entry point???
CVO again, what's the entry point?
LFB buy strength, stop at 18.42
RNDC buy strength, stop at 2.50
SKS big gap up, long, stop at 17.3
TTH short weakness, stop at 27
VTS long, stop at 29.4
WDC breakout gap up stop at 12.5
INT long, stop at 30.7
APOL still looks like a short, stop at 75
ARBX, short it! stop at 20
AVID short, stop at 55
MHK short, stop at 85.2
NARA short it below 14
SNN short, stop at 47.5
WMT short it stop at 51
pennies
I'm going to start putting the penny stock list in a separate post to make it easier for Ron Sen to ignore . . .
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
AEL a breakout, stop at 12.5
BKHM a breakout--but what's the entry point???
CVO again, what's the entry point?
LFB buy strength, stop at 18.42
RNDC buy strength, stop at 2.50
SKS big gap up, long, stop at 17.3
TTH short weakness, stop at 27
VTS long, stop at 29.4
WDC breakout gap up stop at 12.5
INT long, stop at 30.7
APOL still looks like a short, stop at 75
ARBX, short it! stop at 20
AVID short, stop at 55
MHK short, stop at 85.2
NARA short it below 14
SNN short, stop at 47.5
WMT short it stop at 51
pennies
I'm going to start putting the penny stock list in a separate post to make it easier for Ron Sen to ignore . . .
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Penny Losers for April 1, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .
DIAAF long stop at .049
EFTI long stop at.25
GNOLF long, stop at .32
IBAS long, stop at 2.2
JSDA breaking out, stop at 5.5
MJET how many days in a row can it double?
MBTG breaking out, stop at 0.50
MBYTF long, stop at 0.04
PHLH buy it above .035
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .
DIAAF long stop at .049
EFTI long stop at.25
GNOLF long, stop at .32
IBAS long, stop at 2.2
JSDA breaking out, stop at 5.5
MJET how many days in a row can it double?
MBTG breaking out, stop at 0.50
MBYTF long, stop at 0.04
PHLH buy it above .035
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Thursday, March 31, 2005
More praise and idolatry for Buffett and Berkshire
I'd been thinking about expanding on my recent post on Buffett and Berkshire, and then along comes BlogginWall Street with the Piggybackers and Are Buffett followers in Denial; and then, whaddya know, I find out Jaloti is one of the bloggers who "continued to praise and idolize Buffett"!
First off, let's get one thing straight--I am all about the goal. When I trade, I want to make money--easy, rough, ugly, pretty, I'll take it any way I can get it. When I blog, I'm all about the traffic, so BlogginWall Street, I don't care what you say about me as long as you get the URL right. (You did, thanks.)
On a more philosophical note, however, I don't disagree with the comments that some part of Buffett/Berkshire's success is marketing and PR; in fact, I advocated that very point here. I said it then, I say it now, Warren Buffett has a gift for sales. However, I maintain that he's a mighty fine value investor and capitol allocator, as well. He makes mistakes, sure, but I think his long track record is pretty good.
As far as my post, showing my "idolatry" for Buffett, as I stated, I was actually mentally expanding on it this morning prior to Bloggin Wall Street taking notice of me. When I said that the whole system as we know it would be in trouble, if in fact Warren Buffett is over the line, I meant it, on a couple different levels. First, Buffett's integrity has never before been seriously questioned. He has a 40+ year public record of doing his duty to his partners and shareholders in an honest and ethical way. If he has been dishonest/unethical, then, wow, he's fooled a lot of people for a long time, and basically, you can't trust anybody. And maybe you can't. And again, if that's the case, I'll never read another 10-K or SEC filing, I'll look at charts exclusively, and even those I'll take with a grain of salt.
The other level I was referring to is the legal one. I have to admit I'm not that smart about a lot of these investigations, but I have a concern sometimes that the fine points of the law are used as a bludgeon by overzealous governmental officials to trap well-meaning individuals who were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Again, Buffett has been very good about knowing just where the legal lines are; if, in this case, he's inadvertantly stepped over the lines that Eliot Sptizer drew after the fact, then no one is safe from crusaders in the government, and this "Spitzer risk" needs to be priced into every publically traded entity in some way. (Note--I realize Spitzer isn't the only one interested in Buffett; I'm using him as an example and for convenience' sake.)
In summary, I think I have my eyes open about Warren Buffett; he's got strengths and weaknesses. However, no one has ever seriously suggested his ethics were a weakness. If, in fact, that is the case, then we're in trouble. If you can't trust Buffett, I'm not really sure who in business you can trust.
First off, let's get one thing straight--I am all about the goal. When I trade, I want to make money--easy, rough, ugly, pretty, I'll take it any way I can get it. When I blog, I'm all about the traffic, so BlogginWall Street, I don't care what you say about me as long as you get the URL right. (You did, thanks.)
On a more philosophical note, however, I don't disagree with the comments that some part of Buffett/Berkshire's success is marketing and PR; in fact, I advocated that very point here. I said it then, I say it now, Warren Buffett has a gift for sales. However, I maintain that he's a mighty fine value investor and capitol allocator, as well. He makes mistakes, sure, but I think his long track record is pretty good.
As far as my post, showing my "idolatry" for Buffett, as I stated, I was actually mentally expanding on it this morning prior to Bloggin Wall Street taking notice of me. When I said that the whole system as we know it would be in trouble, if in fact Warren Buffett is over the line, I meant it, on a couple different levels. First, Buffett's integrity has never before been seriously questioned. He has a 40+ year public record of doing his duty to his partners and shareholders in an honest and ethical way. If he has been dishonest/unethical, then, wow, he's fooled a lot of people for a long time, and basically, you can't trust anybody. And maybe you can't. And again, if that's the case, I'll never read another 10-K or SEC filing, I'll look at charts exclusively, and even those I'll take with a grain of salt.
The other level I was referring to is the legal one. I have to admit I'm not that smart about a lot of these investigations, but I have a concern sometimes that the fine points of the law are used as a bludgeon by overzealous governmental officials to trap well-meaning individuals who were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Again, Buffett has been very good about knowing just where the legal lines are; if, in this case, he's inadvertantly stepped over the lines that Eliot Sptizer drew after the fact, then no one is safe from crusaders in the government, and this "Spitzer risk" needs to be priced into every publically traded entity in some way. (Note--I realize Spitzer isn't the only one interested in Buffett; I'm using him as an example and for convenience' sake.)
In summary, I think I have my eyes open about Warren Buffett; he's got strengths and weaknesses. However, no one has ever seriously suggested his ethics were a weakness. If, in fact, that is the case, then we're in trouble. If you can't trust Buffett, I'm not really sure who in business you can trust.
Loser List for March 31, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
HMA long,, stop at 26
IRIS long on strength stop at 10.8
KOSP long, stop at 40
MPWR if it goes up, buy with a stop at 8.4
OMR long, stop at 3.3
ROL long, stop at 18
TRI long, stop 48.5
USEG long on strength, stop 5.65
UBET it's a breakout, above 5.98
APOL short weakness, stop 75
ERTS short weakness, stop at 54.2
MHK short weakness, stop at 86
PH short weakness, stop 61
pennies
CGYN long, stop at 0.49
MJET buy it above 0.32
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
HMA long,, stop at 26
IRIS long on strength stop at 10.8
KOSP long, stop at 40
MPWR if it goes up, buy with a stop at 8.4
OMR long, stop at 3.3
ROL long, stop at 18
TRI long, stop 48.5
USEG long on strength, stop 5.65
UBET it's a breakout, above 5.98
APOL short weakness, stop 75
ERTS short weakness, stop at 54.2
MHK short weakness, stop at 86
PH short weakness, stop 61
pennies
CGYN long, stop at 0.49
MJET buy it above 0.32
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
A little snapback here
Nice rally here today. I was going to post something pre-open about a possible rally here, but blogspot wouldn't let me. I say that not to claim I called it here, but to put it in perspective. The markets were pretty oversold by lots of different measures; Trader Mike showed a good one. The point is that what to do with a day like today depends on your time frame--if you're very short term, then there are some good longs to catch. If you have a longer time frame, this may be time to sell, depending on how far this goes. On the Nasdaq, for instance, it looks like we've rallied right to resistance, so I wouldn't be a longer term buyer here without more strength.
Loser List for March 30, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
Lots of really crummy looking charts. You're probably best off ignoring this list, and keeping your cash in your pocket.
AEL long stop at 12
GEOI long, stop at 7.87. maybe.
HMA a nice breakout, stop at 25.3
NUCO long, stop at 25
IRIS long, stop at 11
OMR long stop at 3.4
TRI gap up, stop at 48.7
USEG stop at 5.65
BBG short weakness stop at 28.8
SCH be ready to short a solid break of 10
DCX ditto for a break of 44
pennies
ASPC stop at 0.075
JRSE buy above 0.004
LTS breakout stop at 0.70
LTHU keep an eye on it
NVEI a breakout if it can get above 0.187
QTIG breakout above .125
VLTA big gap up, stop at 0.32
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Lots of really crummy looking charts. You're probably best off ignoring this list, and keeping your cash in your pocket.
AEL long stop at 12
GEOI long, stop at 7.87. maybe.
HMA a nice breakout, stop at 25.3
NUCO long, stop at 25
IRIS long, stop at 11
OMR long stop at 3.4
TRI gap up, stop at 48.7
USEG stop at 5.65
BBG short weakness stop at 28.8
SCH be ready to short a solid break of 10
DCX ditto for a break of 44
pennies
ASPC stop at 0.075
JRSE buy above 0.004
LTS breakout stop at 0.70
LTHU keep an eye on it
NVEI a breakout if it can get above 0.187
QTIG breakout above .125
VLTA big gap up, stop at 0.32
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Buffett and Berkshire
Berkshire Hathway has been trading down toward the price that would interest me on word that Buffett himself will be questioned by regulators.
Look, its very simple. Buffett may have his flaws, but he's very aware of where the ethical and legal lines are. If he's over the line, then we've got some EXTREMELY serious problems here--like buy gold and guns because the whole system as we know it is in trouble.
That "end of the world" bet hasn't ever panned out. I think Berkshire will emerge from this ok.
It may trade lower for a while, though.
Look, its very simple. Buffett may have his flaws, but he's very aware of where the ethical and legal lines are. If he's over the line, then we've got some EXTREMELY serious problems here--like buy gold and guns because the whole system as we know it is in trouble.
That "end of the world" bet hasn't ever panned out. I think Berkshire will emerge from this ok.
It may trade lower for a while, though.
Loser List for March 29, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
SCH--little bounce today, but still looking like a short to me. stop at 10.5
MRX, short weakness, stop 31
RSH be ready to short weakness, stop at 26
TOO ditto, stop at 25.5
XPRSA short, stop at 21
WMT is looking like a short if it can't get above 51.2 or so
PRZ buy it if it can stay above 4.93
USEG is right at support, long if it shows strength, stop 5.6
EPAY short,stop at 13.5
FHRX, short stop at 16.2
QSII breakout, stop at 47
Pennies
ASPC long, stop at 0.08
LGOV is a breakout, stop at 0.24
keep an eye out for PTF, PH, PAX, UNP
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
SCH--little bounce today, but still looking like a short to me. stop at 10.5
MRX, short weakness, stop 31
RSH be ready to short weakness, stop at 26
TOO ditto, stop at 25.5
XPRSA short, stop at 21
WMT is looking like a short if it can't get above 51.2 or so
PRZ buy it if it can stay above 4.93
USEG is right at support, long if it shows strength, stop 5.6
EPAY short,stop at 13.5
FHRX, short stop at 16.2
QSII breakout, stop at 47
Pennies
ASPC long, stop at 0.08
LGOV is a breakout, stop at 0.24
keep an eye out for PTF, PH, PAX, UNP
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Monday, March 28, 2005
Random Roger (once again) makes me think
Random Roger had a great post that started with links to two extremes in investing philosophy: anyone can and should manage their own money, and essentially, almost no one can. Roger made some great points, but I'd like to go in a little different direction. The debate, of course, is between "anyone can do well as an active investor" and the "best strategy is to use stable, passive index fund strategies" or "use a professional to make your decisions". I'll suggest that the difference between the two extremes is more one of degree than kind. The Barry Ritholz article made some cogent observations about why most humans suck at investing, but guess what? You gotta make a lot of the same decisions either way. You gotta decide to put your money somewhere. Even if you use passive strategies or a manager, you gotta decide to do that. You gotta pick the strategy or the manager. You gotta decide when and how much. Most important of all, you gotta keep deciding to stay with it, or not. Not to decide is to decide.
Let me give an example. I know a few people who've swallowed the John Bogle/Vanguard Funds/dollar cost average into the indexes koolaid. I shouldn't be perjorative; there's good data that suggests that strategy has merit IF you stick with it, over 20-30-40 years. Guess what? These people pulled money out and/or stopped contributing at the same point in the past 5 years. Was it A) January 2000 or B) July 2002? Take a wild guess. Hey, if you suck, you suck.
I suppose you can argue that with a passive approach, or a manager, you have fewer decisions to make. Still, in finance, as in the rest of life, all it takes is one or two really bad decisions at the wrong time to screw you up good.
Whatever approach one picks, you have to learn not to suck.
Rule #1 Don't lose money
Rule #2 Dont forget rule #1.
Let me give an example. I know a few people who've swallowed the John Bogle/Vanguard Funds/dollar cost average into the indexes koolaid. I shouldn't be perjorative; there's good data that suggests that strategy has merit IF you stick with it, over 20-30-40 years. Guess what? These people pulled money out and/or stopped contributing at the same point in the past 5 years. Was it A) January 2000 or B) July 2002? Take a wild guess. Hey, if you suck, you suck.
I suppose you can argue that with a passive approach, or a manager, you have fewer decisions to make. Still, in finance, as in the rest of life, all it takes is one or two really bad decisions at the wrong time to screw you up good.
Whatever approach one picks, you have to learn not to suck.
Rule #1 Don't lose money
Rule #2 Dont forget rule #1.
Loser List for March 28, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
Long list today . . . I'm gonna look at them really carefully before doing anything--some of these charts are almost "too good"
GSIC short weakness, stop at 13.5
BBG short weakness, stop 28.5
SCH short a break of 10
DCX short a break of 44
ERTS short a break of 54.5
FMBI went right down and closed at the previous low of 32.02. Where now?
MKC short weakness stop at 35.4
MRX short weakness stop 30.5
MDTL short weakness, stop 15
ALAN might be a long if it stays above 1.00
BE buy strength, stop at 8.35
CPC still waiting to see some strength, 16.9 is the stop
CVO if you buy breakouts, here it is, stop at 4.1
CBAG long stop at 2.1
LEXR might be a look stop at 5.8
NUCO breakout stop at 25
PRZ another breakout above 4.5
USU long stop at 16.5
pennies
ASPC it has "space" and "com" in its name. Long, stop at 0.78
CGYN long, stop at 0.5
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Long list today . . . I'm gonna look at them really carefully before doing anything--some of these charts are almost "too good"
GSIC short weakness, stop at 13.5
BBG short weakness, stop 28.5
SCH short a break of 10
DCX short a break of 44
ERTS short a break of 54.5
FMBI went right down and closed at the previous low of 32.02. Where now?
MKC short weakness stop at 35.4
MRX short weakness stop 30.5
MDTL short weakness, stop 15
ALAN might be a long if it stays above 1.00
BE buy strength, stop at 8.35
CPC still waiting to see some strength, 16.9 is the stop
CVO if you buy breakouts, here it is, stop at 4.1
CBAG long stop at 2.1
LEXR might be a look stop at 5.8
NUCO breakout stop at 25
PRZ another breakout above 4.5
USU long stop at 16.5
pennies
ASPC it has "space" and "com" in its name. Long, stop at 0.78
CGYN long, stop at 0.5
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Sunday, March 27, 2005
Sunday Night Charts for March 27, 2005
Let's start with the Nasdaq. Weekly chart.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Solid break of that trendline. If it doesn't stop here, could be down to 1900.
Next is VIX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
A little pop, and fade. Still no real fear.
Now, the CRB
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Despite the drop, still a solid uptrend.
Next is gold.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Dropped right to solid support. If this doesn't hold . . . . . . . .
S & P
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Has also dropped to solid support.
WTIC
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Right at a double top.
TNX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Would you believe, declining interest rates?
Finally, Warren Buffett's favorite short, the USD
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
A change in trend? Not till it solidly breaks above about 85.
Have a great week everyone!
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Solid break of that trendline. If it doesn't stop here, could be down to 1900.
Next is VIX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
A little pop, and fade. Still no real fear.
Now, the CRB
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Despite the drop, still a solid uptrend.
Next is gold.
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Dropped right to solid support. If this doesn't hold . . . . . . . .
S & P
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Has also dropped to solid support.
WTIC
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Right at a double top.
TNX
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Would you believe, declining interest rates?
Finally, Warren Buffett's favorite short, the USD
Courtesy of stockcharts.com
A change in trend? Not till it solidly breaks above about 85.
Have a great week everyone!
Weekend Wazzup for March 27, 2005
My roundup of the Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- is here. Ugly at uglychart has a running "survivor" contest for stock market blogs --Jaloti made a great run at it this week, but it looks like Fat Pitch Financials closed strong this weekend and has a big lead. Vote early and often!
Chairman MaoXian is off on an extended trip to the motherland, but eventually he'll be back with his newsletter and his chat. Stockcoach is also still off on an extended break--I'll be waiting for both of these guys to get back, and I'm sure a lot of others will as well.
Ron Sen has spun off his charting to a new site. Galatime mentioned some managed options trading in Australia, as well as a book review and some new blogs. Tom Ott at Sixth World links to his stock scans, and highlights that great trade in HANS. Bill Cara once again presents an outstanding review of the week. The Soothsayer of Omaha got back from Chicago and looked at what Mr. Market is saying.
Taylor Tree will post later today or tomorrow, I just know it, so check him out when he does. Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research had some nice stuff on Finance XML, which segues right into his Open Source equity project, GEM research. Check it out! TraderMike linked to Jim Cramer's 25 rules of investing. (Moses only brought 10 commandments, but Cramer has 25 rules? I'm not surprised.) Byrne's Marketview linked to a fascinating article about a man who has saved billions of lives, but most (including me) have never heard of him. He also mentioned Google's 20% rule, another thing I hadn't heard about.
Random Roger made comments about firefighting, Jim Cramer, and GM's debt. Stephen Vita at the Alchemy of Trading highlighted what the big boys are doing(Hint--they're signalling "BUY"). Check out Shiau Street, and his great new idea, a Wiki for stocks!
Have a great week everybody!!
Chairman MaoXian is off on an extended trip to the motherland, but eventually he'll be back with his newsletter and his chat. Stockcoach is also still off on an extended break--I'll be waiting for both of these guys to get back, and I'm sure a lot of others will as well.
Ron Sen has spun off his charting to a new site. Galatime mentioned some managed options trading in Australia, as well as a book review and some new blogs. Tom Ott at Sixth World links to his stock scans, and highlights that great trade in HANS. Bill Cara once again presents an outstanding review of the week. The Soothsayer of Omaha got back from Chicago and looked at what Mr. Market is saying.
Taylor Tree will post later today or tomorrow, I just know it, so check him out when he does. Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research had some nice stuff on Finance XML, which segues right into his Open Source equity project, GEM research. Check it out! TraderMike linked to Jim Cramer's 25 rules of investing. (Moses only brought 10 commandments, but Cramer has 25 rules? I'm not surprised.) Byrne's Marketview linked to a fascinating article about a man who has saved billions of lives, but most (including me) have never heard of him. He also mentioned Google's 20% rule, another thing I hadn't heard about.
Random Roger made comments about firefighting, Jim Cramer, and GM's debt. Stephen Vita at the Alchemy of Trading highlighted what the big boys are doing(Hint--they're signalling "BUY"). Check out Shiau Street, and his great new idea, a Wiki for stocks!
Have a great week everybody!!
Saturday, March 26, 2005
Fox Saturday Morning "Business Bloc" for March 26, 2005
Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- Bulls and Bears started with the Trading Pit segment, discussing the fact that April has been the best performing month for the Dow over the past 55 years, with an average 1.9% gain. So the question, is a rally coming --Bob Froelich from Scudder Investments said yes , Tobin Smith and Chris Russo said maybe yes but it might be a head fake, Pat Dorsey and Scott Bleier said no (Bleier also mentioned he's short TOL). In the Lightning round, discussing C: Froehlich and Dorsey were bulls, Toby, Bleier and Russo were bears. On XOM: Toby, Russo, and Froehlich were bulls, Bleier and Dorsey were bears. On GE: Froehlich was the lone bull, all the others were bears. MSFT: Dorsey and Froehlich were bulls, Bleier, Toby and Russo were bears. In the Stock Xchange segment, Toby picked USU uranium (the one Herb Greenberg hates and Cramer likes), Froehlich picked BUD, Bleier picked COHR--largest manufacuter of lasers in the world--he owns it, Dorsey picked FHN, a regional bank paying 4%, and Russo picked KOMG. In predictions, Bleier says oil has picked for the year, and autos to head up--buy DCX. Dorsey says buy UPS sell FDX, Bob Froehlich says buy KO, Russo says buy MVL on Monday. Toby says SFD for Easter. Pat Dorsey got the line of the day-- "Does anyone else see the irony in a ham stock from Tobin?"
Cavuto on Business started with a discussion of whether the fact that rising gas prices haven't yet hurt the market is bullish. I find it hard to see much value in these discussions, when debates occur over easily verifiable facts--"the money supply is contracting" "no it isn't". The More for Your Money segment discussed possible take over targets-- Charles Payne picked EMC; Jon Najarian picked TSO; Perma-bull Joe Battipaglia says regional bank ASO (but doesn't own it); Ben Stein says WM. Cavuto went Head to Head with former "Governor Moonbeam" and current Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown about government regulation of health care. Oddly enough, Brown defended more regulation, and Cavuto argued for less. In Fox on the Spot, perma-bull Joe Battipaglia says market up 10% up in April, Meredith Whitney says boom in housing prices is over, Jon Najarian says Pontiac or Buick may be dumped, GM may sell off GMAC, and thus GM is a buy and he owns it. Ben Stein says interest rates will stay low, buy stocks. Payne says dump oil stocks, a 10% correction is coming. Cavuto says more people will make living wills (wow, out on a limb there)
Forbes on Fox started with the Flipside, which discussed rising college costs. It is a fact, and a big concern, but once again there was disagreement over basic facts ("More kids are getting grants than loans" "No they aren't"). The only novel (though convoluted) point I heard was that the problem is that employers use college degrees as a credential, even when it really isn't relevant to necessary skills. Again, little useful information. In Focus discussed social security reform and the consensus was that private accounts are probably not going to happen. The Informer segment discussed rising gas prices. VLO was mentioned because they are good at refining "sour crude" lower grade crude that not all refiners can handle. PKZ was also mentioned. The Makers and Breakers segment featured Adam Bold, who was pushing CAMOX (has beaten S&P every year of its existence) and FFSCX, a small cap fund.
Cashin' In for the umpteenth time discussed whether there was a housing bubble. Wayne Rogers and Herb Greenberg said there is. Scary fact--in some sections of California, only 18% of households can afford a new home. In the Best Bets segment, Jonas Max Ferris picked WMT, but Jonathan Hoenig and Wayne Rogers said its dead money (Rogers said TGT might be better in this sector). Rogers picked PG as a defensive play, Hoenig said it was a good defensive pick, like CLX and PYX. Hoenig's pick was SNE, but said NWS was better in that sector. In the Money Mail segment, Wayne Rogers was asked what he looks for in a stock making a bottom. He said he looks for a drying up in volume, a formation like a double bottom , or cup with handle, then a rising price with rising volume. Hoenig says he still owns SPI as well as other international utilities. In the Stock of the Week segment, Wendell Perkins of Johnson Family mutual funds picked WYE and Wayne Rogers liked it.
Cavuto on Business started with a discussion of whether the fact that rising gas prices haven't yet hurt the market is bullish. I find it hard to see much value in these discussions, when debates occur over easily verifiable facts--"the money supply is contracting" "no it isn't". The More for Your Money segment discussed possible take over targets-- Charles Payne picked EMC; Jon Najarian picked TSO; Perma-bull Joe Battipaglia says regional bank ASO (but doesn't own it); Ben Stein says WM. Cavuto went Head to Head with former "Governor Moonbeam" and current Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown about government regulation of health care. Oddly enough, Brown defended more regulation, and Cavuto argued for less. In Fox on the Spot, perma-bull Joe Battipaglia says market up 10% up in April, Meredith Whitney says boom in housing prices is over, Jon Najarian says Pontiac or Buick may be dumped, GM may sell off GMAC, and thus GM is a buy and he owns it. Ben Stein says interest rates will stay low, buy stocks. Payne says dump oil stocks, a 10% correction is coming. Cavuto says more people will make living wills (wow, out on a limb there)
Forbes on Fox started with the Flipside, which discussed rising college costs. It is a fact, and a big concern, but once again there was disagreement over basic facts ("More kids are getting grants than loans" "No they aren't"). The only novel (though convoluted) point I heard was that the problem is that employers use college degrees as a credential, even when it really isn't relevant to necessary skills. Again, little useful information. In Focus discussed social security reform and the consensus was that private accounts are probably not going to happen. The Informer segment discussed rising gas prices. VLO was mentioned because they are good at refining "sour crude" lower grade crude that not all refiners can handle. PKZ was also mentioned. The Makers and Breakers segment featured Adam Bold, who was pushing CAMOX (has beaten S&P every year of its existence) and FFSCX, a small cap fund.
Cashin' In for the umpteenth time discussed whether there was a housing bubble. Wayne Rogers and Herb Greenberg said there is. Scary fact--in some sections of California, only 18% of households can afford a new home. In the Best Bets segment, Jonas Max Ferris picked WMT, but Jonathan Hoenig and Wayne Rogers said its dead money (Rogers said TGT might be better in this sector). Rogers picked PG as a defensive play, Hoenig said it was a good defensive pick, like CLX and PYX. Hoenig's pick was SNE, but said NWS was better in that sector. In the Money Mail segment, Wayne Rogers was asked what he looks for in a stock making a bottom. He said he looks for a drying up in volume, a formation like a double bottom , or cup with handle, then a rising price with rising volume. Hoenig says he still owns SPI as well as other international utilities. In the Stock of the Week segment, Wendell Perkins of Johnson Family mutual funds picked WYE and Wayne Rogers liked it.
Friday, March 25, 2005
Loser List for March 25, 2005
There is no loser list today--the US markets are closed for Jaloti's birthday.
Seriously, they are closed for Good Friday, but it IS Jaloti's birthday today.
To answer the inevitable question:
"Old enough to know better" :>)
Seriously, they are closed for Good Friday, but it IS Jaloti's birthday today.
To answer the inevitable question:
"Old enough to know better" :>)
Thursday, March 24, 2005
Cramer's Mad Money
Got a chance to catch Jim Cramer's Mad Money again today.
Quote of the day:"One day when you get inside my head--which would really be incredible because there's about 40 other guys in there right now. . . "
in the contrary indicator department: Cramer says trade out of NFI and get into NLY.
He likes USU, but Herb Greenberg doesn't. What to do, what to do. . .
Quote of the day:"One day when you get inside my head--which would really be incredible because there's about 40 other guys in there right now. . . "
in the contrary indicator department: Cramer says trade out of NFI and get into NLY.
He likes USU, but Herb Greenberg doesn't. What to do, what to do. . .
PTIE
Check out the yahoo PTIE board for an interesting discussion of a tiny pharma with new results out today. Jaloti may even post there!
Loser List for March 24, 2005
For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
For a variety of reasons, including the doji in the tenyear note, the gap and crap in the VIX, and the fact that the 36 "line in the sand" in the QQQQ held, I think we may get a bounce today, Jim Cramer notwithstanding. If we gap open today, remember the Trader Mike rule, and wait to buy above the 10 AM high.
BBG short with a stop at 28
DCX be ready to short that break of 44
ERTS short a break of 55
IFOX buy strength, stop 15.7
MHK short, stop 86
PLMO breakout--stop at 25
ARS long, stop at 24.6
AHOM breakout, stop 4.10
APYM, long, stop at 1.96
CPC wait for strength, stop at 16.9
GEOI buy on strength, stop at 8.7
ROL no longer rolling, it's breaking out- stop at 18
JBL buy only on strength, stop at 27
PECS sell weakness, stop at 12.5
ABLE long, stop at 11.5
PTA maybe long? stop at 2.25
pennies--
HRCT on strength
TLEI if it can hold 0.30
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
For a variety of reasons, including the doji in the tenyear note, the gap and crap in the VIX, and the fact that the 36 "line in the sand" in the QQQQ held, I think we may get a bounce today, Jim Cramer notwithstanding. If we gap open today, remember the Trader Mike rule, and wait to buy above the 10 AM high.
BBG short with a stop at 28
DCX be ready to short that break of 44
ERTS short a break of 55
IFOX buy strength, stop 15.7
MHK short, stop 86
PLMO breakout--stop at 25
ARS long, stop at 24.6
AHOM breakout, stop 4.10
APYM, long, stop at 1.96
CPC wait for strength, stop at 16.9
GEOI buy on strength, stop at 8.7
ROL no longer rolling, it's breaking out- stop at 18
JBL buy only on strength, stop at 27
PECS sell weakness, stop at 12.5
ABLE long, stop at 11.5
PTA maybe long? stop at 2.25
pennies--
HRCT on strength
TLEI if it can hold 0.30
How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
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