Penny Losers for April 11, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . . Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling, but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .

BSKO long on a breakout above 1.2
CBYI be long but only if it's strong
GNOLF long on strength, stop at .294
GACF long, stop at 0.96
HBSC long on strength, stop at 0.37
IBAS long, stop at 2.30
LVEL buy it above 0.075
NNPP a breakout, stop at 3.53
OCCM a breakout above 0.26
SAMC a breakout above 1.43

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Loser List for April 11, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .

SVNX long, stop at 12.5
ATRS short, stop at 20
BUD is good beer, but a short below 46.5
ADM, supermarket to the world, is a short with a stop at 22.5
BMET is at the top of the channel, short it with a stop at 38.3
CHE short "ernesto" if the gap holds, stop at 72
LAVA is flowing downhill, short weakness, stop at 9.6
MKC short weakness, stop at 35.2
TKLC short weakness, stop at 15
USFC short a break of 45
API long on strength, stop at 2.34
BKHM long on strength, stop at 3.2
CNTY long, stop at 9.77
DDIC long on strength, stop at 3.1
IRIS buy it above 13
JOSB long on strength above 33.4
KOSP buy it before the breakout buyers do, stop at 43.7

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Sunday Night Charts for April 10, 2005

Let's start with the weekly chart of the Nasdaq.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Uptrend is broken, now sitting at the 50 day. Needs to show a lot of strength from here to be a medium term buy.

A new one--TPL

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Thinly traded expensive stock, that has made some people a lot of money over the past couple years.

Next is the CRB

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
A pullback here, but still a solid uptrend.


Gold.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Hugging that uptrend line. Probably a good low risk entry here.

VIX

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Everytime a little fear appears, it gets scared off.

Now the continuing saga of the USD

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
This is starting to get real interesting. One solid up week and the downtrend could be broken.

Black gold--WTIC.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Double top, but still a solid longer term uptrend.

Next is one I've done a lot of handwringing about--CME

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
This one is looking like it could be a short, but not just yet--still too much of an uptrend.

TNX

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Falling long term rates???


Finally is a monthly chart of GM.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
At a ten year low. If you subscribe to the theory that the time to buy Dow stocks is when they are beaten down, then it's time to buy this one.

Have a great week everyone!

Weekend Wazzup for April 10, 2005

My roundup of the Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows-- is here.
Ron Sen says what I've been thinking about the auto makers. And over at his Chart Student site, he's got some great charts, including a ?bottom? for NAPS and one you can't touch.
Galatime links to a great article on trading psychology.
Shiau Street has completed his thesis and is posting again, on DELL and RIMM.
Tom Ott at Sixth World brings together the VIX and the CBOE put/call ratio to conclude . . . . . .(click the link already!)
Bill Cara once again presents an outstanding review of the week (I'm not sure what "champ cars" are, but Bill says it means it's week 14).
The Soothsayer of Omaha points out another advantage of IRAs.
Taylor Tree will have a great post soon, I just know it.
Chairman MaoXian's chat is back weekdays from 4:30 to 5:30 Eastern time. Check it out, you never know who will be there.
Stockcoach is still on an extended break.
Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research links to a piece on hedge fund managers as reckless gamblers. (I'm shocked, shocked!! Your winnings, sir. Thank you.)
TraderMike linked to a great resource from Dave Landry .
Byrne's Marketview gave me a great bromide to digest "Outsource any part of your business that doesn't have a direct competitor."
Random Roger gave a great insight into his personal thinking and history, with a follow up here.
Ugly at uglychart has a running "survivor" contest for stock market blogs. Vote early and often!
The Alchemy of Trading usually has a good Sunday night overview. Watch for it.
Also watch for the LBR group's Sunday night chat--they usually have some good stuff.
And, finally, I was tipped to a new blog this week, the Present Moment Trading Campaign by Market Monk. Check it out!

Fox Saturday Morning "Business Bloc" . . .

. . . has been delayed till Sunday morning.
I'll catch it and give a full report :>)

Cramer's Mad Money

Caught some of Cramer's Mad Money again last night. He pimped NLY again. He also said MO is going to split into 3 separate companies, and there's 20 points of upside there.
His line of the day was about the VZ-Q deal "Verizon and Qwest are in some sort of a claymation death match thing, to me it feels a lot like Tina Turner vs. Mel Gibson, forget it-- sell it!"

Blogspot . . .

. . .has been all goofed up last night and this morning.
Hopefully I've got my posts straightened out now.
It's been a busy week for me, so I haven't been able to blog much besides the usual lists.
I'll try to get more out soon.

Penny Losers for April 8, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .
Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling, but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .

API still a long stop at 2.34
ANX now its a breakout, stip at 2
DIAAF long above .065
HDVY place your bets!
SAMC long strength, stop at 1.18
OCCM ?



How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Loser List for April 8, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .

BUD above 47 might be a buy, below 46 short
BBW short it below 27
SCH short weakness, stop at 10.8
GM actually looks like it could be a buy--stop at 30
JNC buy strength, stop at 30
RSAS short it if you can, stop at 12.5
STC short weakness, stop at 38
WAT short weakness, stop at 37.5
ARE short stop at 65
CNTY breakout above 9.77
CYBX long, breakout above 45
GLGC if you want to bottom fish, give it a poke, long, stop at 2.97
GTIV is a breakout above 17.6
JOSB long on strength, stop at 33.4
OMR breakout above 4
WDC breakout stop at 13





How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Penny Losers for April 7, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . . Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling, but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .

APYM breakout, stop at 2.17
CBYI long, stop at .055
EZEN long, stop at 1.87
GNOLF long strength, stop at 0.32
GACF breakout, long strength stop at 0.96
NVEI long strength, stop at 0.155
OCCM buy it above 0.26

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Loser List for April 7, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .

API long on strength, stop at 2.4
AWGI breakout, stop at 12.9
APPX breakout, stop at 57
BKST short below 17, long above
CACH ditto for 13.8
CREE if it can't get above 25, short it!
CVV long on strength, stop at 5.75
GGR long, stop at 1.8
LFB breakout above 20. Be ready.
MEOH long strength, stop at 18.5
SMBI breakout, stop at 22.5
VEXP long strength, stop at 11.4
BMET short weakness, stop at 38
CPO short weakness, stop at 22
CFR shot weakness, stop at 46
keep an eye on FRX and FBR

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Penny Losers for April 6, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . . Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling, but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .

BRVO long, stop at 0.165
CBYI long, stop at 0.53
MJET long, stop at .31
MDGN long, stop at .08
NNPP nanno nanno above 3
OCCM on the razor's edge, long above 0.225
OSGL long, stop at 0.055
PHLH if its strong, I'm long above 0.025
PYTO watch it till it's above 1.5 then buy


How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Loser List for April 6, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .

AACE short stop at 22.24
PLB breakout, stop at 28.5
BKHM long, stop at 2.5
BKST long above 17.1
CVO how far can it run?
ELTK long, stop at 3.8
ITRI long strength, stop at 30
JNC long, stop at 33
JOSB long, stop at 32
LANV long strength, stop at 4.2
LFB long stop at 18.4
MEOH long, stop at 18.5
MOBE long above 8.75
FLYRE long strength, stop at 14
PHMD long above 3.0
SIMC long strength above 6
WSTM long strength above 4
XOMA long above 1.46
pick up a MACE to defend yourself
get wet with WTSLA

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Penny Losers for April 5, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . . Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling, but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .

ACDI long on strength, stop 1.85
APYM long on strength, stop 2
BPTR again, long on strength, stop 0.9
BRVO long, stop at 0.15
CYBI breakout above 0.055
CGYN ditto above 0.65
CMRG breakout, stop at 6.81
EFTI long, stop at 2.15
MBTG long on strength, stop at 0.44

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Loser List for April 5, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .

APOL short, stop at 75
ARCC short, stop at 17
BMET short, stop 36.5
SCH short, stop at 10.7
DCX short weakness, stop at 44
BKHM long on strength, stop 2.7
CVO long, stop at 5.25
ELTK long, stop at 3.6
IRIS long strength, stop at 11
RTSX breakout, stop at 20
WTSLA long, stop at 3.94
UBET long, stop at 5.75
PH short, stop at 61.5

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Loser List for April 4, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . .

API a breakout above 2.55
CMRG long above 6.65
CPC watch it--the next move might be up
CVO long on strength, stop at 5.3
ELTK maybe long above 3.81
EENC long strength, stop at 21.4
FMC long, stop at 52.5
KOSP long above 42.5
LFB long, stop at 18.4
FLYR long, stop at 14
RNDC long on strength, stop at 2.43
RVI long, stop at 9.2
SKS long, stop at 18
SIMC long, stop at 6.65
SYNM long, stop at 12.4


How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Penny Losers for April 4, 2005

For entertainment and/or education only. I may be long, short or out of any of these stocks, and positions may change in a flash. . . Remember these are penny stocks--despite being cheaper on a per share basis, you can lose money faster. This is like gambling, but without the women bringing you free drinks. YOU'D BE CRAZY TO DO THIS ! . . .

BPTR long, stop at 0.9
CBYI long above 0.055
CGYN long above 0.5
EFTI breakout above 0.275
FRUEF long, stop at 0.048
GNOLF long above 0.3

How to use this list. And don't forget the disclaimer . . .

Sunday Night Charts for April 3, 2005

Let's start with an old favorite.
Nasdaq. Weekly chart.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
General Franco is still dead, and the trendline is still broken.

Contrast the SP500

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Depending on how you draw the trendline, its either broken, or in trouble. One to watch.

Next is one I've done a lot of handwringing about--CME

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Looks like this one is also broken, and based on the volume at the higher prices ("bagholders"), I think there is fuel for a further downtrend.

Now contrast the CRB

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Pullback in an uptrend.


Next is gold.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Hugging the trendline. Don't sell the Krugerrands-yet.


VIX

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
Maybe trying for a pop, but not quite yet.

Finally, the USD

Courtesy of stockcharts.com
This is starting to get interesting. It will take a solid move above 85, but I think this downtrend is in as much jeopardy as its ever been.

Have a great week everyone!

Roundtable stock--MCD

This week's roundtable stock is MCD. Weighing in on the Roundtable so far are Ron Sen, and Levi Bauer; other Roundtable members are Tom at Sixth World, Bill Cara, and Kaushik Gala.

Let me start with an anecdote about MCD that probably has nothing to do with buying the stock. I rarely go to McDonald's for myself, but I've gone there countless times because of my kids. When my oldest son was about 10 or so, after having been to McD's a few thousand times, he took one bite out of his quarter pounder and said--"yuck, they changed the burger". He was told, no, they hadn't. He replied, "Yes, they did--this one sucks." He was informed, no, that's the way they've always tasted. Catholics have confirmation, Jews have a bar mitzvah--my son started becoming a man when he realized that McDonald's burgers are not particularly tasty.

Bill Cara has in the past(though I can't find the link now) made a good point about the free valueline info on the Dow 30 stocks--they essentially have their whole page of analysis of each Dow stock available for free on their website. One interesting factoid that you can glean from the valueline pages is that McDonald's working capital is always a negative number--I've been told this is because of the nice deal they have with their suppliers--they are paying them next Tuesday for the fixins to sell a hamburger today.

In my view, MCD is a good example of a variation of the dogs of the dow strategy. While the dogs of the Dow strategy per se (i.e. buying the 4 or 5 highest yielding Dow stocks each year) has been somewhat discredited, more often than not these Dow stocks are buys when they hit multi-year lows. In this case, MCD would have been a great buy in early 2003 in the teens. Of course, at that time, people were talking that maybe McDonald's was finished--that's when it can be profitable to buy these Dow stocks. Companies picked for the Dow 30 are behemoths of American industry that can weather storms and probably aren't going away. There are always exceptions (and I would argue that GM might be one now), but the odds favor the beaten down Dow stocks coming back. (I haven't rigorously tested this hypothesis, but this week I will look at some charts and see what the results are of buying Dow stocks when they make new multi-year lows).

Right now though, in terms of fundamentals, there is nothing especially compelling about MCD--1.7% dividend, PE, PS, and PEG not far from the industry averages. As to technicals, a quick and dirty look shows me nothing terribly exciting either.
The long term weekly chart

courtesy of stockcharts.com
A shorter term pullback in a long term uptrend. There appears to be support around 30. A buy here should be accompanied by a stop just below 30. Alternatively, the Nicolas Darvas version would be to buy the long term breakout above 34.5.

Point and figure chart

courtesy of stockcharts.com

The bullish price objective at 31 has been met, and no new patterns present themselves.

In summary, its hard for me to get too excited about big cap stocks, especially Dow stocks (JNJ and KO would be two notable exceptions for me). The time to really jump into MCD with both feet was two years ago. As Jonathan Hoenig might say, "I can't get excited about putting new money here now."

Weekend Wazzup for April 3, 2005

Apparently, there will be no broadcast of the Fox News Channel' s "Cost of Freedom" Saturday Morning shows due to continuing coverage of the death of Pope John Paul II.

Weighing in on the Roundtable so far are Ron Sen, and Levi Bauer; other Roundtable members are Tom at Sixth World, Bill Cara, Kaushik Gala, and yours truly.

Speaking of my Roundtable brothers, Ron Sen had a nice roundup of some disparate events, as well as a hilarious roundtable of his own. He also had some nice chart analysis on his new blog entitled, oddly enough, Chart Student. Just this AM, he made some observations worth reading on what's going on with ETFs. Galatime had an update to a previous option position, as well as an April Fools' Day cartoon. Tom Ott at Sixth World had some more stock scans . Check out his list at stockcharts.com. Bill Cara once again presents an his review of the week.

Taylor Tree had an outstanding post comparing the economy and markets now to the early 1970s. I'm not sure that history repeats that closely, but I do think it rhymes pretty well. I AM sure that he will have another post worth reading either later today or tomorrow, so keep an eye out for it.

Chairman MaoXian announces that his chat will be back next week, likely after the close at 4:30 to 5:30 PM Eastern time--check out his website for the details.

Stephen Castellano at Reflections on Equity Research presented a thoughtful overview of how analysts make industry forecasts. He also had some thoughts on switching to an equity research career.

TraderMike welcomes a new nephew but also talks about maybe looking for a different job. We don't want your blog to go away, but even if it's bad for us, hopefully whatever you do will be good for you, Mike.

Byrne's Marketview gave another update on the MCI-Qwest-Verizon merger a trois (my hat is off to anyone who successfully games that one!)

Random Roger has an interesting anecdote about how much help a broker will give you when a stock like AIG hits a rough patch. (Hint: the choices are slim and none.)

Ugly at uglychart has a running "survivor" contest for stock market blogs. Last week, Jaloti got several hundred votes but lost. This week, I got ZERO votes. How does that work? He also had a post worth reading on movies. Speaking of movies, this might be a good time to check out The Shoes of the Fisherman. Not a great movie, but it turned out to be ironically prescient.

Shiau Street has been busy with a thesis, and his new site, wikistocks. Stockcoach is still on an extended break.

Stephen Vita at the Alchemy of Trading made some points about risk control. Check him out tonight, he usually has a good roundup then.

LBR Group usually has a free Sunday night chat session--check it out.

And that's wazzup in the blogsphere this weekend.